No. 357.
Sir Edward
Thornton to Mr. Blaine.
Washington
,
March 21,
1881. (Received March 21.)
Sir: With reference to my note of the 10th
instant relating to the report made by the acting British consul at
Philadelphia in December last, I have the honor to inform you that as
the statement that 700,000 head of swine had died in Illinois of cholera
during the year 1880, had been transmitted by the British vice-consul at
Chicago, I instructed Her Majesty’s consul at Philadelphia to request
that vice-consul to furnish the data and authority upon which he had
founded the statement in question.
I have now the honor to transmit herewith copy of a letter and an
accompanying memorandum sent by Mr. Warrack to Captain Clipperton
snowing upon what authority the former made the statement which has
given rise to so much bitter and even unjust comment.
You are doubtless aware that Her Majesty’s consular officers are in
possession of peremptory instructions from Her Majesty’s Government to
make periodical reports of the sanitary condition of the domestic
animals in this country, so many of which are now contributing towards
the supply of food to the inhabitants of Her Majesty’s dominions. In
performing this duty they naturally endeavor to obtain the most correct
data, and I know not where they are so much justified in looking for
them as in the statistics collected by the authorities, whether of
individual States or of the United States. In this instance Mr. Warrack
appeals to statistics collected and furnished to the agricultural
department of Illinois by the assessors of that State, and he shows that
the statement which has been the subject of so much complaint is borne
out by the figures given by the assessors. It is admitted by the
agricultural department of Illinois that the loss of hogs by disease in
that State was greater in 1880 than in 1879. The assessors declare that
the number of pigs and hogs which died of cholera in 1879 was 676,738.
It is therefore probable that Mr. Warrack, in stating that 700,000 had
died in 1880, was rather under than over the mark.
It may be that the returns made by the assessors were incorrect, and they
are certainly not in accord with those published by the agricultural
department of Illinois; but no blame can certainly attach to Mr. Warrack
for giving credit to the statements of such officials as the assessors
of Illinois.
I have at the same time the honor to invite your attention to the Report
of the United States Commissioner of Agriculture for 1879, page 24,
where, in speaking of hog cholera, it is stated that— [Page 584]
Careful returns from correspondents of the department show these
losses to be at present from $15,000,000 to $20,000,000
annually.
It is added that it is not unusual to receive intelligence from some of
the large hog-growing localities in the West that the losses in single
counties will reach the large sum of $50,000 to $80,000, and in some
instances as high as $150,000 in one season through the devastating
operations of this disease.
I have, &c.,
[Inclosure.]
Mr. Warrack to
Mr. Clipperton
.
British Vice-Consulate,
Chicago
,
March 16,
1881.
Sir: I beg to acknowledge the receipt of
your dispatch of the 12th, inclosing copy of one from Sir Edward
Thornton to you of the 10th instant, and inquiring as to the basis
on which I formed my calculations, &c., when reporting to Mr.
Vice-Consul Crump on the mortality among swine in the State of
Illinois in the year 1880; and in reply I beg to say that the
statement, as forwarded by me to Philadelphia on the 18th of
December last, was founded on official documents in my possession,
and other data, as more particularly set forth in the inclosed
memorandum.
I have, &c.,
J. WARRACK,
British
Vice-Consul.
memorandum.
Illinois agricultural department’s circular No. 70, dated August 20,
1880, the latest available at date of my letter of 18th of December,
1880, states the number of hogs and pigs died of “cholera” as
follows: 1877, 1,445,268; 1878, 1,391,422; 1879, 676,738.
These are the figures returned by assessors. Years 1878 and 1879 are
verified by showing in detail the loss in each county; vide for
1878, page 383 of the seventeenth volume Transactions of Department
of Agriculture, Illinois; and for 1879 see page 107 of circular 70.
For the year 1878 thirteen counties do not appear to have reported,
and there are three missing in 1879. The number of hogs assessed per
reports of assessors (see page 50 of circular 70) are, in 1879,
2,799,051; 1880, 3,133,557.
At this date, 20th August, 1880, the percentage of deaths of the
assessed hogs in 1880 had not been ascertained, but in circular 72,
of 31st of December, 1880, it is given as 6 per cent. in 1879, and 7
per cent. in 1880, and on page 80 of circular 72 the following
figures appear:
| Year. |
Number of hogs assessed. |
Per cent. died. |
Number died. |
Average weight. |
Value. |
| 1877 |
2,961,366 |
12 |
358,844 |
104 |
$1,853,415 |
| 1878 |
3,334,920 |
14 |
474,758 |
108 |
1,438,589 |
| 1879 |
2,799,051 |
6 |
182,577 |
98 |
588,487 |
| 1880 |
3,133,557 |
7 |
227,259 |
104 |
937,293 |
This shows an increase of 12 per cent. in the number of assessed
hogs, and a further increase, viz, 1 per cent. in the rate per cent.
of those which died. That there were more swine in Illinois in 1880
than in 1879 is corroborated by the following statistics, taken for
the regular “Board of Trade” circular, issued daily, from the best
and most trustworthy sources accessible to the publishers: [Page 585]
|
1880. |
1879. |
|
* Receipts of hogs at
Chicago for ten months, to November 1 |
5,222,495 |
4,888,309 |
| Shipments, same
period |
1,285,993 |
1,509,840 |
| Number packed, including
city consumption from January 1 to November 1,
1880 |
3,936,502 |
3,278,469 |
| Number packed from the first
of November, 1880, to December 17, 1880, the date of my
advice being 18th of December |
1,505,050 |
1,300,000 |
| Total |
5,441,502 |
4,578,469 |
Increase of hogs killed in Chicago from 1st January to 17th December,
1880, 863,033, or 19 per cent. The increase in the number assessed
as reported by the State assessors, being the difference between
2,799,051 for 1879 and 3,133,557, is 334,506, or 12 per cent.
It will be observed that the figures dealt with by the parties
interested in attacking the accuracy of Mr. Crump’s report are the
deaths of the assessed hogs, and they do not
appear in any of their numerous published communications to refer to
the figures as given by the only authorized State assessors of
Illinois, and published in the Illinois reports of the deaths of the
total so-called “hog crop” of the State.
Something has been said by the parties who ignore the total deaths to show that the light weights
of the assessed hogs, say an average of 108
pounds in 1878, 98 pounds in 1879, and 104 pounds in 1880, prove
these to have been among young “shoats” and pigs; but turning to the
reports of the assessors, as detailed on page 81 of circular No. 70,
dated 20th August, 1880, we find that the gross weights of the “hogs
and pigs which died of cholera” and the number in the following
years are as below:
|
1877. |
1878. |
1879. |
| Number of hogs and
pigs died of cholera |
1,445,268 |
1,391,422 |
676,738 |
| Total gross weight of swine died of cholera |
pounds |
106,949,832 |
139,853,508 |
49,326,591 |
| These give average weights
in these years of |
do |
74 |
100 |
73 |
as against 108 and 98 pounds already quoted as the
average weight of the swine which died in these years (1878 and
1879) out of the assessed numbers.
The figure 700,000 given by me was purposely put low, and was based
mainly on the statistics as published, and also on the general
information one gathers from dealers and farmers. Had the circular
of 31st December, 1880, been available at the time I reported, or
rather had I reported after its issue instead of before, I would
have made the loss at least 750,000, perhaps 800,000; for, if a loss
of 182,577 accrues in 1879 from a 6 per cent. rate on 2,799,051
assessed swine, and the total loss in the same year, 676,738, then
it is clear that if the death-rate in 1880 is 7 per cent. and the
deaths of assessed hogs 227,259 out of 3,133,557, then the total
deaths for 1880 of all the swine raised in the State will be about
842,000.
J. WARRACK.
Chicago
,
March 16,
1881.
