Mr. Washburn to Mr. Seward.
Sir: In my last two despatches, written at Buenos Ayres, I advised you of my detention at that place, by reason of the interruption of all communication between Paraguay and the Argentine Republic. I waited then the arrival of Admiral Godon, with our Brazilian squadron, not doubting but that he would send at least one war steamer to be near the scene of the existing hostilities, and would give me a passage above the allied fleet to my post. On his reaching Buenos Ayres, however, he declined sending any vessel from his squadron up the river, and I was left to get to my post as best I could. I accordingly left Buenos Ayres on Thursday, the 25th ultimo, on a merchant steamer, and reached [Page 559] here the day before yesterday. This is a city of about 14,000 inhabitants, and is situated about twenty miles from what is called the Tres Bocas, or Three Mouths. At that point the three rivers, the Bermejo, the Paraguay, and the Parana, unite, and the main river below is known as the Parana till its confluence with the Uruguay, below which it is known as the Rio de la Plata. At the extreme southern part of Paraguay the whole army of President Lopez is said to be stationed. He has erected heavy batteries to prevent the passage of any force up either the Paraguay or Parana. The same force can man the batteries that command both rivers, the whole army being stationed just at the confluence of the two. Just opposite, on the left or southern bank of the Parana, the allied forces are encamped. Here they are collecting a large army, which is constantly increasing in number, and being drilled into a fair degree of efficiency. President Mitre is the commander-in-chief of the army, and has been constantly in the field with it since May last. From the best information I can get I judge that in the allied army there are about 62,000 troops, of which 15,000 are Argentines, 7,000 Orientals, and 40,000 Brazilians. Lopez’s army is variously estimated from 35,000 to 40,000.
The allies are now preparing boats and pontoons to cross over the Parana and attack Lopez in his stronghold. They have been preparing so long for this invasion that some think they never intend to be ready. They are certainly far from ready now, and from the casual observations I have made, it does not appear to me that they will be ready for a general movement for at least two months to come. The river is very wide at the point El Paso de la Patria, where it is supposed the allies are to cross—at the present high stage of water, not less than a mile and a half. The crossing must be a very difficult and dangerous affair, but it is generally believed that President Mitre understands his business, and will not move till he is very sure of success.
The allies have also a very large fleet in the river, consisting of at least sixteen war steamers, of which three are iron-clad, and believed to be invulnerable to anything that President Lopez can send against them. The war fleet nearly all belongs to Brazil, and is being increased at such a rate that when the difficulty with Paraguay is arranged the whole of the Argentine and Oriental Republics will be at the mercy of the Emperor. He will have an immense fleet already in the river, and when the question arises about the payment of the cost of the Paraguayan war his allies must accede to his terms, or he may take possession of every town on the river from the Tres Bocas to the Atlantic ocean, including Buenos Ayres and Montevideo. The Emperor will be slow to send his fleet away until all his questions of dispute with his nearest neighbors are settled. What may be the ultimate intentions of his Majesty in the event of a successful issue of the war against Paraguay, is of course with me a matter of conjecture. But he will certainly be master of the situation, and I am of the opinion that the result will be an enlargement of the area of the imperial dominions.
This enlargement must come first from Paraguay. That will be the apple of discord if the prize once falls into the allied hands. Should that country be conquered and erased from the map of nations, Brazil will hardly fail to claim the territory. It is true it is stipulated in the treaty of alliance that the sovereignty of the country shall be respected, and that the people there, when once the Lopez family are driven out, shall be left free and independent to select their own rulers and form of government. But a rupture between the allies is looked for as inevitable as soon as Paraguay is disposed of, and then of course the treaty will be disregarded.
From considerations like the foregoing, I am led to conclude that the day of any permanent peace with these countries is remote. Should Paraguay succumb to superior force, both Brazil and the Argentine Republic will, I think, without doubt strive for the territory, and it is for a contingency like this that I would ask for instructions. I would like to be informed whether the United States [Page 560] would view without remonstrance or objection the annexation of the republic of Paraguay to the empire of Brazil or to the Argentine Confederation, or its division between them.
Since my arrival in Corrientes, I have seen none of the military or naval authorities, and consequently I do not know whether I shall be permitted to pass through the lines to Paraguay or not. In the event of a refusal I shall probably return to Buenos Ayres, and if Admiral Godon still persists in refusing me any assistance from the fleet, I must wait till such instructions are sent, either to the admiral or myself, as will relieve me from a position so unpleasant to myself and so little calculated to do credit to the diplomatic service of the United States.
The encampment of the allied army is some twenty-two miles from here, and near the Paso de la Patria. I propose to go out there in two or three days, when I shall probably have an interview with President Mitre. The two armies are at what appears to be nearly a dead lock. The only demonstrations made are by the Paraguayans, who send over occasionally small detachments in boats, which return soon after with such trophies as they can collect, including the heads of such as they may surprise. The atrocities committed in this war show that the race has changed but little since the days of Alba and Torquemada.
Hoping that under the peculiar circumstances in which I am placed I may be instructed as to what course I shall pursue,
I have the honor to be, sir, your most respectful, humble servant,
Hon. William H. Seward, Secretary of State, Washington, D. C.
P. S.—I should add that the allies have not blockaded a single port on the river. Their whole fleet is lying opposite or below this city, and there is not a gunboat above here. Merchant vessels of all nations come to this place and depart without interference, and as it is twenty miles below the Tres Bocas, I do not see that there is even a pretext of a blockade of any port of Paraguay, and the allies have not pretended to blockade any of their own ports. The Brazilians have requested the flag officers of the respective national war vessels to send any of them above the allied fleet, and have announced that merchant vessels will be permitted to go up and down past this port. But I do not understand that, they have a shadow of law or right to justify them in enforcing their pretensions, nor do I think they will attempt it.