Mr. Adams to Mr. Seward.
Sir: Matters remain here pretty much in the same condition that they were in last week. The pressure for cotton is increasing in severity as the stock decreases. A sudden demand from the continent has led to the export of a considerable quantity, the effect of which has been to derange the calculations of the probable duration of the amount on hand. This consideration, taken together with the late unfavorable weather to the growing crops, tends to make people grave. There is not, however, so much talk of intervention or even of mediation in our affairs as there was some weeks ago. The news of the capture of Memphis and of the recovery of our control of the Mississippi, like that of every preceding stroke of a decisive character, put an end for the time to such agitation. The impression is growing stronger that all concerted resistance to us will before long be at an end. But there is still an eager belief, that is fostered by the confederate emissaries, that there will be irregular and continuous opposition to an extent sufficient to make peace and reunion impossible. Some are still supported by a lingering hope that the movements of the Emperor Napoleon in Mexico may take a turn against the United States. The darling desire of the governing classes that the United States may be irrevocably divided, though subdued in expression by events, still remains as closely cherished as it was on the first breaking out of the disturbances.
It is not to be denied, however, that the trial to which the people of this country are about to be subjected is a most serious one. We may yet hope that the fears entertained of the growing crop will prove ill-founded. Even in that case it is difficult to see how the operations in the great manufacturing counties are to be carried through the next winter without severe suffering. It is scarcely to be supposed that the crop of cotton now in the ground in the United States will at all compare in amount with that of ordinary years, and it may be very small. In any event, it will not be available until quite late in the season. The present stock will last, perhaps, three months. The only resource left for a supply is in the disposition that may be made of the remainder of the crop of last year. The exaggerated accounts of destruction which come from the American papers have the effect of persuading people that the spirit which inspires this sacrifice is pervading the entire population of the slaveholding States. Hence, that no dependence is to be put on any considerable aid from this source. At the same time, it seems impossible to find fault with the government of the United States, which is doing everything in its power to open the channels of supply. All that it could be expected to do further is to proceed in the same policy as fast as circumstances will appear to justify it. I uniformly reply to all representations made to me that great movements require time. Hence, that it is not wise [Page 119] to prejudge anything in the existing condition of America. Thus far our progress has outstripped all their expectations. It may do so to the end of the chapter. Nay, it will do so, provided they do not choose to put obstacles in the way. Their policy should have been to favor our efforts instead of disparaging them; to augur good rather than ill results. If, by their ill-disguised antipathy, a favorable issue should prove to have been delayed or partially impaired, they have themselves to thank, not us, for the evil consequences.
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There seems to be confidence in the success of confusion, in my belief, as little founded in justice as any of the preceding calculations of these infatuated men.
I have the honor to be, sir, your obedient servant,
Hon. William H. Seward, Secretary of State, Washington, D. C.