Mr. Fogg to Mr. Seward.

No. 25.]

Sir: Your despatch of September 26 (No. 26) is received. Since writing mine of September 4, to which yours is in acknowledgment, I have had more opportunity to form a judgment as to the probability of a large emigration of European laborers to the United States. The result has been to somewhat modify those first formed and expressed in my former despatch.

The facts and suggestions of your circular on that subject have been published in nearly all the Swiss papers. At first, and when the fortunes of war were darkest against the Union arms, they were received with a smile of incredulity. People had been receiving none but war news from America for a year past, and had come very generally to believe all the energies of the country were absorbed by the possession of arms.

The information elicited by your circular, confirmed by the collateral facts which every week is bringing to public attention, has wrought a very considerable [Page 776] modification of the first unfavorable impressions, Judging from what I now see and hear, I shall not be surprised to see a resumption of the tide of emigration from Switzerland and Germany, with the early spring much like that of former years. The general success or failure of our armies, during the winter will, however, have great influence upon the amount of emigration. The mass of those contemplating going to America are those who want to make homes for themselves and their children. They want a free country and ultimate peace, and unless they can see a proximate promise of this they will not go.

Let us have the Union restored without slavery, and the supremacy of the federal government everywhere asserted and acknowledged, and we will see more and a better class of emigrants to the United States from Europe than ever before. But people must first see that we are going to have a republic and a government there. Thus far, nearly all the organs of public intelligence in Europe, and almost all the public men, whether speaking through the government or the press, have been for us ravens croaking and prophecying our ruin. I trust to see events of the next few months in America shut their mouths.

With the highest respect, your obedient servant,

GEORGE G. FOGG.

Hon. William H. Seward, Secretary of State of the United States of America.