Mr. Adams to Mr. Seward.

No. 109.]

Sir: The expectations of a declaration of some kind from the Emperor of the French on the subject of the American difficulty which might be made the basis of an agitation here have been disappointed. Whatever is to be done must be originated in Parliament by the avowed friends of the rebels. All the particular grounds of complaint against the United States have been successively removed from under them. The parties seized in the Trent are now safe on this side of the Atlantic. The blocking up of Charleston harbor is shown to be no real grievance. The inefficiency of the blockade is the only remaining proposition which it is attempted to support by evidence. Even that would be met by proof drawn from the admissions made by the insurgents at home, if it could have been supplied in a tolerably authentic form. I regret that I have not at my command any official tabular statement of the number of vessels turned off or taken during the period of blockade, or evidence of the price of the various commodities of foreign growth or manufacture rendered scarce by the operations of the blockading force. But inasmuch as the government is obviously disinclined to sustain an objection of this kind just now, the probability is that nothing will be made out of it. There is, then, not a particle of solid material for the dissatisfaction with the government of the United States, based on its own policy, to make a quarrel out of. Resort must then be had to the simple objection that the rebellion has not been suppressed. This will be urged as justifiable cause for early recognition; and upon that issue the sense of the House of Commons will probably be sooner or later taken. At this moment it is impossible to estimate the strength of parties, or the character of the division. The impression is that the conservatives generally favor such a measure, of which thus far I see no evidence beyond the general tendency of one or two newspapers in that interest, which I have had occasion to suspect not to be trustworthy organs. I am rather inclined to the belief that this subject has not yet become a party question in the eyes of the members of either side. Each individual, therefore, indulges his particular [Page 20] opinion. There is no knowing how soon it may become so. That will depend upon the chances of making anything out of it in case of a conflict. The ministry are notoriously feeble in Parliament, whilst the conservatives are strong only whilst confining themselves strictly within a negative position. Hence the situation of both parties rests equally upon an avoidance, at least for the present, of test questions. Lord Palmerston is sufficiently popular to make it hazardous to attempt to dislodge him by a coup de main in Parliament, which would inevitably be followed by a formidable opposition headed by him. The more eligible course has thus far been thought to be to await the moment, which cannot be long delayed, of his retreat, when Lord Derby is expected to be summoned to take his place with the consent of all but the radical section of the people. This will be an era for a reconstruction of parties.

Such has been the programme down to the assembling of Parliament. What shape things may take afterwards it is impossible to predict. That the American question is to be a serious element in any calculation of its action everything conspires to make us believe. I shall endeavor, so far as it may be within my power, to keep you informed of the movements as they occur.

I have the honor to be, sir, your obedient servant,

CHARLES FRANCIS ADAMS.

Hon. William H. Seward,Secretary of State, Washington, D. C.