Rick’s proposals range from the unexceptional to the draconian. He believes
almost all of his suggestions need to be implemented to get a Treaty by the
end of the year. We have been developing a START work program for the next several months and will
consider Rick’s suggestions in our recommendations to you. His specific
proposals include the following:
Tab I
Memorandum From the Head of the Delegation to the Nuclear and Space
Talks (Burt) to the President’s
Assistant for National Security Affairs (Scowcroft)2
Cotting START Done
What is the problem? The President has directed,
both publicly and privately, that we complete START in 1990. The President and his senior team seem to
believe this goal can be attained. In fact, it cannot,
[Page 828]
without a drastic change in our current
approach. Indeed, without such a change, it is probable that START will not be completed until spring
1991 or later, casting doubt on our ability to complete ratification
before the middle of a Presidential election year. Failure to complete
START in the next few months
could also mean that the window for ever
completing the Treaty will disappear, either due to accelerating changes
in the Soviet Union or to the growing (but erroneous) perception that a
START Treaty has been overtaken
by events and is no longer important.
Even with a dramatic change in approach, completion in 1990 is far from
certain. This paper documents the problem and offers a comprehensive set
of possible changes. It does not repeat the well known arguments on why
we should finish in 1990, but simply sets forth
some of the reasons why we probably won’t finish and what we need to do
to get the job done.
How much is left? An internal Negotiating Group
review reveals a simple, but stark fact: There are
well over a hundred significant issues left to resolve before a
Treaty can be signed. A list is attached. Many single items
actually reflect several contested issues. For example, there are 22
disputed notifications treated as a single issue. Similarly ALCM inspections are treated as a single
issue, although they consume several pages of treaty text. Thus the list
of remaining issues can probably be expanded to include several hundred
individual decisions of the type that traditionally rate a paragraph in
a guidance cable. With 153 days (including Sundays and holidays) to
resolve over a hundred issues and record the results in the treaty by
December 31, it is clear that the chances of finishing START in 1990 are slim. Our problems,
however, run far deeper than this.
Why are we in trouble? It is important to
recognize that there is no single solution because there is no single
problem. We have a series of problems, any one of
which, could preclude completion. Some are beyond our control;
the Soviets are distracted at home and the Soviet military is
reasserting itself. As a result, the Soviets are taking excessively long
to respond and are often putting forth unhelpful positions. In addition,
the Soviet delegation often appears slow to implement agreements and
sometimes seeks to walk them back. These problems can only be solved in
Moscow. Thus, no matter what we do it may not be
enough.
But the problems are not only in Moscow. In my view there are a number of
problems on our side, problems we can and must do something about.
Indeed, if we do not solve some of them soon, the problem will not be
completing a treaty in 1990, it will be completing a treaty in 1991.
Our most significant problems include:
- 1.
- We aren’t closing out ministerial level
issues. Meetings between Secretary Baker and Foreign Minister
Shevardnadze have
been effective in resolving issues. Unfortunately, we are
identifying ministerial
[Page 829]
issues faster than we are solving them. At a minimum, we
probably need a ministerial push to solve the following:
- —
- Backfire
- —
- Heavy ICBMs
- —
- Non-circumvention
- —
- Whether to destroy missiles/warheads/ALCMs
- —
- Perimeter and Portal Continuous Monitoring (PPCM)
- —
- Third country basing and inspections
- —
- Inspection and notification regime for ALCMs
Other issues will doubtless emerge as we move toward the
end. The INF experience shows
minor and arcane issues can sometimes become sticking points
requiring high-level political resolution. An additional
problems is that, when decisions are taken, the Soviet
negotiating group sometimes must wait weeks for instructions on
implementing them. - 2.
- Washington is taking far too long to
determine U.S. positions or to respond to ad ref agreements
reached in Geneva. Some examples:
- —
- It took over a year to establish our PPCM position.
- —
- It has been more than a year and we still don’t have a
firm position on suspect site inspection.
- —
- Our position on new types and RV counting for future types has been under
review since November. We are weeks away from having an
initial position on this major hole in the Treaty. When
we do, we will have less than four months to sell a
position it took us nine months to establish.
- —
- New tagging procedures were drafted early this year
but took over four months for Washington review. It is
unclear that they are any better for this effort.
- —
- Basic issues on tagging, supposedly resolved earlier,
are being reopened and reexamined. The schedule for some
of them runs into next year.
- —
- The average time to respond to routine guidance
requests is going up. Of the last 20 Round XIII requests
for guidance where the Negotiating Group requested a
response by a specific date, only four were answered by
the date requested; the remainder averaged over two
weeks late.
- —
- A review of what data the United States will require
in the Memorandum of Understanding has been underway
intermittently for over two years, with most difficult
issues yet to be faced.
- —
- An ad ref agreement on launch control facilities was
sent for Washington approval on June 29. Five weeks
later, it is still under review. There are well over 100
issues left of comparable scope.
- 3.
- Geneva is in danger of becoming a
bottleneck. Reaching general agreement can be done
quickly. Turning that agreement into treaty language is
inherently a slow process. Reaching agreement with the
[Page 830]
Soviets on the text is
even slower. A recent treaty scrub reveals dozens of minor
problems requiring fixes to agreed
language. Thus the longer it is until we have agreed
positions, the more risk there is that either (a) we won’t
finish, or (b) we’ll have INF-type problems because of obscure or ambiguous
drafting.
- 4.
- The working level in Washington doesn’t
think we will or can finish this year. In a number of
recent conversations with various Geneva players, no individual below the Assistant
Secretary level expected to finish START in 1990 or considered that doing so was
important. The delay in Washington responsiveness is one
manifestation. On important and time sensitive issues, for
example, Saturday meetings in Washington are common; to our
knowledge no meeting on Saturday has ever
been held in Washington based on a need to get things to Geneva
on time. Another manifestation is that reports from meetings
(once again below the Assistant Secretary level) never include
any discussion of negotiability or timeliness. In a nutshell,
the President’s announced decision to complete START this year has had no
discernable effect on the working-level in Washington. Neither
procedures nor attitudes have changed.
One thing is thus clear: We lack a firm deadline.
One reason that the working level is unconvinced that completion in 1990
is a real goal is the lack of a scheduled summit. Past experience
suggests that many issues simply won’t be resolved—in Moscow or in
Washington—until a summit or some other “action forcing event” is
scheduled.
What do we need to do? Just as there is no single
cause for our problem, there is also no single solution. If we are
serious, however, there are steps we can take, many of them somewhat
radical. They include;
- 1.
- Make more effective use of the
ministerial process. We should:
- —
- Agree with the Soviets now that
there will be a Ministerial every month until START is signed (late
September, late October, late November).
- —
- Agree that no later than 10 days before each
Ministerial each side will send a letter listing the
issues it wants to solve at that Ministerial and its
proposals for solving them.
- —
- Agree that the traveling team will arrive 24 to 48
hours in advance and begin discussions at once in order
to prepare issues for the Ministers decision.
- —
- Organize internally so that we can make real-time
decisions at Ministerials to settle issues and insist
that the Soviets do the same.
- —
- Where possible, record ministerial decisions in treaty
text form at the ministerial itself to speed up the
implementation process.
- —
- At each Ministerial, give Shevardnadze a list of technical issues
being worked in Moscow which are of special concern to
us. Ask Shevardnadze to use this list to lean on
his technical experts and the Moscow bureaucracy in
order to spring loose specific issues which are hung up
in the Soviet bureaucracy. (This is similar to the
practice we have used on human rights cases of special
interest.)
- —
- At the next opportunity, raise with Shevardnadze the delay
in having the Soviet negotiating team aware of decisions
taken at ministerials. If necessary, propose that the
October and November ministerials be in Geneva so that
the Soviets get rapid feedback.
- —
- Have the State Department draft instructions following
each ministerial documenting decisions. Do not have
these reviewed by the interagency process; have them
sent as White House text. Limit such instructions to a
record of decisions taken.
- 2.
- Make more effective use of our assets
in
Washington. We should;
- —
- Forbid the drafting of treaty language in Washington.
Guidance should come in terms of principles and
objectives, with treaty drafting done in Geneva.
- —
- Expedite reaching U.S. positions on all outstanding
issues so that no U.S. position
remains untabled by September 15. (See attached list for
specifics)
- —
- Establish a policy now that, on September 20, the
Negotiating Group should accept Soviet positions in all
areas in which there is no U.S. position. Allow
exceptions only with the personal approval of a Cabinet
Officer.
- 3.
- Make more effective use of our assets in
Geneva. We should:
- —
- Assign two additional State advisors to the
Negotiating Group as soon as possible.
- —
- Recognize that the Inspection Protocol and Memorandum
of Inspection Procedures are as large, and contain as
many issues, as all other Treaty documents combined.
Therefore: (a) have three weekly meetings of the
Inspection Protocol working group, (b) use subgroups to
work the large number of technical issues, and (c) make
special arrangements to extend or return experienced
advisors (Mr. Schless (OSD), Dr. Scalingi (ACDA), and [name not declassified] (ACIS)).
On September 15, reevaluate to see if progress is
satisfactory; if not, split the effort into two separate
working groups.
- —
- Continue three Burt-Nazarkin meetings weekly on major
issues. Add an additional meeting weekly to review the
status of subordinate documents, especially the
Inspection Protocol and Memorandum of Inspection
Procedures.
- 4.
- Improve Washington turn around time. We
should:
- —
- Discontinue the use or Blackbird cables except for
rare sensitive topics not intended to be disseminated
beyond PCC principals.
- —
- Formally establish a new procedure for ad referendum
agreements:
- —
- All ad ref agreements sent as normal RFGs from the
Negotiator, flagged for delivery to PCC
principals.
- —
- Ad ref agreements automatically approved after eight
working days unless Washington directs otherwise.
- —
- Schedule a standing meeting of PCC principals every
Wednesday evening and Saturday morning. At this
meeting—and only at this meeting—consider whether to
repudiate ad ref agreements.
[Page 832]
Basic rule: If a PCC principal
doesn’t know enough to discuss the subject without an
interagency study, defer to the Negotiator.
- —
- On RFGs, mandate that Negotiating Group
recommendations are automatically approved on the due
date in the request, provided that at least eight
working days have elapsed unless Washington directs
otherwise.
- —
- Forbid backstopping from delaying sending cables
forward to the NSC
beyond a Negotiating Group requested due date. If
agencies are unable to provide positions, forward a
cable with the notation that “agency x provided no
views.”
- —
- Direct evening and Saturday meetings of backstopping,
PCC subcommittee, or PCC when needed to meet a
Negotiating Group requested due date.
- 5.
- Convince the bureaucracy that we’re
serious. We should:
- —
- Convene a meeting in Room 450 of the Old EOB of all
START players
down through the backstopping level.
- —
- As I suggested in the Oval Office some months ago,
have the President make a 5 minute drop-by at which he
makes the following points:
- —
- Want a treaty this year, but want a good
treaty.
- —
- Job of people in this room is to support the
Negotiator so that he can get that treaty.
- —
- Your job is to find solutions.
- —
- Not looking to abandon our principles but expect you
to find solutions we and the Soviets can both
accept.
NOTE: There are precedents. President Reagan met with the Senior Arms
Control Group (sub-cabinet level) in 1983. As Vice President, President
Bush made an appearance in
OEOB Room 450 before a government wide audience down through action
officers to stress the importance of a special access program. The
National Security Advisor discussed START before a similar audience after one summit. My idea
attempts to combine the features of these past sessions.
- —
- After the President’s departure, announce the new procedures set
forth above. Stress that they have been agreed to at the cabinet
level.
- 6.
- Convince the Soviet bureaucracy that we’re
serious. We should schedule a summit for late this year.
Probably nothing less will do the trick. The sooner a summit is
scheduled, the better—it will enable us to begin disciplining the
bureaucracy now and leave us less vulnerable to charges of a last
minute rush to completion.
There is no question that the measures above are draconian. They are also
the only way to finish this year—and even then the outcome is not
certain. But the issue is not whether we finish this year; the issue is
whether we finish at all. We can probably
complete a treaty by the spring of 1991 if we adopt some of these
measures. We certainly cannot complete a treaty
by December without adopting almost all of them. If we do none of them,
we will probably see START slip
through our fingers.
Attachment
Paper Prepared by the Strategic Arms Reduction Talks Delegation3
MASTER LIST OF START ISSUES
(NOTE: Items marked “***” not shared with the Soviets.)
General Issues and Issues Relating to the Treaty
Itself
- 1.
- Non-circumvention of the treaty
- 2.
- Strategic offensive arms beyond the national territory and
verification thereof
- 3.
- Suspect-site inspections
- —
- Specification of facilities subject to SSI
- —
- Tours of solid rocket motor production facilities
- —
- Exchange of data on solid rocket motor production
facilities
- —
- Right of refusal suspect site inspection
- 4.
- Perimeter and portal continuous monitoring
- —
- Procedure for establishment
- —
- What facilities are to be monitored
- —
- PPCM of heavy bomber
production
- —
- PPCM of mobile launcher
production
- —
- Adding new facilities to the PPCM list
- —
- Conversion and elimination criteria for facilities subject
to PPCM
- 5.
- Phasing of reductions of strategic offensive arms
- 6.
- Physical elimination of ballistic missiles and components
- —
- Elimination of missies not subject to numerical
non-deployed missile limits
- —
- Elimination of re-entry vehicles
- 7.
- Strategic R & D boosters
- 8.
- Vehicles for delivering objects into the upper atmosphere of
space/accountable space launch stages.
- 9.
- Telemetry issues
- —
- data exchange
- —
- exemptions from the encapsulation ban
- —
- strength of transmitted signals
- 10.
- Complex of ALCM-related issues:
- —
- Whether to establish a management regime for ALCMs and, if so, how the
regime would work;
- —
- Elimination of ALCMs and
other heavy bomber armaments during elimination of heavy
bombers;
- —
- ALCM
distinguishibility;
- —
- Ban on non-nuclear ALCMs
with multiple weapons;
- —
- Definition issues including flight test and deployment
descriptions;
- —
- ALCM-associated
inspection regime.
- 11.
- Bomber issues
- —
- Limits on former heavy bomber and heavy bombers equipped
for non-nuclear armaments;
- —
- Definitions of various bomber types and restrictions on
what armament those types can carry;
- —
- How to handle existing reconnaissance, jamming and tanker
airplanes.
- 12.
- Limitations on training and test heavy bombers.
- 13.
- Whether to include Bison as an existing type and, if not, what
restrictions to place on it.
- 14.
- Whether to include Backfire as an existing type and, if not, what
restrictions to place on it.
- 15.
- Questions related to mobile ICBMs:
- —
- Restricted areas/deployment areas, including size
- —
- Categories of movement and rules on movements
- —
- Dispersal provisions
- —
- Road-mobile ICBM
verification
- —
- Restrictions on locations of non-deployed missies and
launchers
- —
- Ban on liquid propellant mobile ICBMs
- 16.
- Aggregate numerical limits on non-deployed mobile ICBMs and on non-deployed launchers
of mobile ICBMs.
- 17.
- Definition of new types of strategic offensive arms.
- 18.
- Provisions regarding initial accountability of systems under the
treaty.
- 19.
- Procedure for warhead accountability on future types of ballistic
missiles.
- 20.
- Procedures for downloading.
- 21.
- Use of the term “warhead” versus “reentry vehicle”. Whether to
have a definition of re-entry vehicle, and if so what it should
be.
- 22.
- Dealing with ballistic missiles with MRVs.
- 23.
- Treating the question of releases or simulated releases.
- 24.
- Issues relating to throw-weight.
- —
- Approach to demonstrated throw-weight.
- —
- Approach to potential throw-weight.
- —
- Use of range capability concept.
- —
- How to record the 50 percent throw-weight
reduction.
- —
- Whether the pre-announced flight tests should be required
to demonstrate any particular characteristics.
- —
- Whether the accountable throw-weight values, once
established, can be increased and, if so, by how
much.
- 25.
- Issues relating to heavy ICBMs:
- —
- Production and flight test restrictions.
- —
- Phasing of reductions.
- —
- Conversion of heavy ICBM
launchers.
- —
- Definition of heavy ICBMs and SLBMs.
- —
- Elimination of heavy test launchers.
- —
- Jackson amendment issues. (***)
- 26.
- Residual linkage issues (preamble, agreed statements, restrictions
on the use of converted ICBMs/SLBMs and
strategic R & D boosters).
- 27.
- Operational dispersals for SSBNs
and heavy bombers.
- 28.
- Numerical limits on silos under construction or under conversion,
launchers on newly constructed submarines that have not begun sea
trials, and launchers on submarines undergoing overhaul and
conversion.
- 29.
- Cooperative measures to
assist NTM.
- 30.
- Limitations on test and training launchers.
- 31.
- New kinds of strategic offensive arms, including the issue of
whether to ban ASBMs.
- 32.
- Support equipment.
- —
- What is to be included.
- —
- What restrictions apply.
- —
- Mobile missile transporters.
- 33.
- Use of the term “stage in its final assembly form/solid rocket
motor.”
- 34.
- Type rule for ballistic and cruise missiles tested as weapon
delivery vehicles.
- 35.
- Unique identifiers.
- —
- Selection of specific unique identifier technology.
- —
- Which systems should have unique identifiers.
- —
- When and where these unique identifiers should be
applied.
- —
- Technical procedures for applying and reading unique
identifiers.
- —
- Whether to require reading tags before flight or static
tests; if required, what procedures to use. (***)
- —
- Rights to read tags during inspections; number to be read
during any inspection.
- 36.
- Treatment of missiles that are temporarily removed from their
launchers, and of heavy bombers from which ALCMs are temporarily removed.
- 37.
- Inspection regime in the absence of limitations on the aggregate
numbers of non-deployed systems.
- 38.
- Ban on cruise missiles on waterborne vehicles other than ships or
submarines.
- 39.
- Ban on converting airplanes into heavy bombers not equipped for
long-range nuclear ALCMs.
- 40.
- Submarine tunnels, including procedures for making these tunnels
impassable to ballistic missile submarines.
- 41.
- Restrictions on production facility locations.
- 42.
- Silos used as launch control facilities.
- 43.
- What facilities are subject to the various forms of inspection
under Article XI.
- 44.
- Procedures for dealing with delays during inspections.
- 45.
- Follow-on negotiations.
- 46.
- Whether to treat silo-based and rail-mobile SS-24s as one missile
type or two.
- 47.
- How long to have the baseline period run and how to regulate
elimination during that period.
- 48.
- Whether to have an Attribution Annex or to record agreed
attributed values in the MOU. Procedures for updating agreed
attributed values, regardless of where they are located.
- 49.
- How to treat the Small ICBM
(existing or future type). ( * * *)
Issues Relating to Definitions
- 1.
- Whether to have a definition of re-entry vehicle and, if so, what
it should be.
- 2.
- Heavy bomber definition.
- 3.
- Reconciling differences on facility definitions (most reflect
other differences in the Treaty).
- 4.
- Reconciling differences on the definitions of ballistic
missile/boost stage, driver training vehicles, ICBM for mobile launchers of ICBMs, launch weight, missile
transfer device, missile transporter, portal, and self-contained
dispensing mechanism.
NOTE: In addition, fifty-six definitions are in dispute, but all are
related to issues listed elsewhere.
[Page 837]
Issues Related to Notifications
- 1.
- What specific notifications should be required (22 instances of
disagreement, most where the U.S. side seeks a notification the
Soviets reject).
- 2.
- When should notifications be given (12 instances where the sides
agree on a notification but disagree on when it is to be
given).
- 3.
- What specific data should be included (7 instances where the sides
agree on a notification but disagree on the specific content of the
notification).
- 4.
- Should the Ballistic Missile Launch Agreement be included in the
Treaty?
Issues Relating to the Protocol on Conversion or
Elimination
- 1.
- Procedures and restrictions for removing propellant during
destruction.
- 2.
- Verification of missile type before elimination of missiles in
canisters.
- 3.
- Whether and under what conditions to allow launch canister reuse,
both as a launch canister and otherwise.
- 4.
- Procedures for removal of silos from accountability during
conversion.
- 5.
- Procedures for removal of SLBM
launchers from accountability during conversion.
- 6.
- SLBM launcher elimination
procedures.
- 7.
- How to deal with silos without headworks.
- 8.
- OSI of heavy bomber
elimination.
- 9.
- Procedures for facility elimination. Criteria to consider a
facility as eliminated.
- 10.
- Rail line removal during rail-garrison elimination.
- 11.
- Reconciliation of heavy bomber terminology.
- 12.
- Various values for excavation depths, display times, removal
distances.
Issues Relating to the Memorandum of
Understanding
- 1.
- What specific data is required and when that data should be
exchanged.
- 2.
- What MOU data should remain confidential.
- 3.
- How MOU updates are conducted.
- 4.
- Criteria for site diagrams, photographs and precision of
coordinates.
- 5.
- List of technical characteristic of strategic offensive arms which
would be specified in the MOU
- —
- Provision of data on variants.
- —
- Technical characteristics to be provided.
- —
- Production data to be provided.
- 6.
- List of technical characteristics to be demonstrated during
exhibitions of strategic offensive arms.
- 7.
- Provision of new annexes listing facilities subject to PPCM and suspect site
inspection.
Issues Relating to the Inspection Protocol and
the Memorandum on Inspection Procedures
- 1.
- Pre-inspection movement restrictions.
- 2.
- Definition of the term “inspection site”.
- 3.
- Sequential inspections
- —
- For short notice inspections.
- —
- Of different types requiring different sets of
equipment.
- 4.
- Provisions for payment to the other Party for costs of inspections
and continuous monitoring.
- 5.
- Heavy Bomber and Former Heavy Bomber inspection procedures and
treatment of nuclear and non-nuclear ALCMs.
- 6.
- Perimeter and Portal Continuous Monitoring Procedures
- —
- Monitoring items entering
- —
- Procedures for continuous monitoring (complete)
- —
- Modified procedures for continuous monitoring prior to
completion of PPCMS
- —
- Procedures for engineering survey
- —
- Report for engineering survey
- —
- Early conduct of engineering survey
- —
- Establishment of the PPCMS
- —
- Number of monitors on the list
- —
- Backup high frequency communications
- —
- Satellite communications
- —
- Use of data confirmation devices
- 7.
- Inspection quotas for all inspection types.
- 8.
- Frequency of replacement of monitors.
- 9.
- Modality for informing in-country escort of intentions.
- 10.
- Size criteria for inspections.
- 11.
- Procedures for operational dispersals of submarines and heavy
bombers.
- 12.
- Pre-inspection restrictions at submarine bases for RV
OSI.
- 13.
- Suspect-site inspection procedures.
- 14.
- Procedures for RV
OSI, including for mobile ICBMs.
- 15.
- Missile verification
- —
- Content of pre-inspection briefing for mobile ICBM bases.
- —
- Pre-inspection restrictions, callback provisions.
- —
- Procedures.
- 16.
- Post-Dispersal inspections
- —
- Procedures
- —
- Size threshold
- —
- Relationship to enhanced verification
- —
- Which Restricted Areas and Rail Garrisons are
inspectable
- 17.
- Conversion or Elimination inspections
- —
- Limitations on eliminations requiring OSI during Baseline
- —
- Need for procedures in addition to those provided in C or
E
- 18.
- Procedures for closeout inspections, including confirmation of
facility elimination criteria.
- 19.
- Procedures for Formerly-Declared Facility inspections.
- 20.
- MOU Technical Characteristics Exhibitions
- —
- Procedures
- —
- Provisions for exhibitions of variants which are not new
types
- —
- Size of team
- 21.
- Heavy Bomber and Former Heavy Bomber Exhibitions
[Page 840]
- —
- Procedures
- —
- Size of teams
- 22.
- Recourse for violation of conditions of inspections.
- 23.
- Procedures for inspection of containers, canisters, vehicles,
etc.
- 24.
- Use of names of inspections as appropriate.
- 25.
- Equipment annexes.
- 26.
- Agreed types of airplanes for delivering equipment.
- 27.
- Navigation equipment and airplane routes.
- 28.
- Inspection sites and associated points of entry.
- 29.
- Insertion of appropriate provision for INF MOA (forty plus items).
- 30.
- Additional inspection protocol blanks (numbers on lists, time,
etc.).
Issues Relating to Separate Agreements
- 1.
- Early agreement on data denial.
- 2.
- Early agreement on exhibitions, including what exhibitions will be
included.
- —
- MOU technical exhibitions
- —
- Heavy Bomber exhibitions
- —
- Former heavy bomber exhibitions
- 3.
- Separate agreement on annual exchange of information on strategic
offensive arms.
- 4.
- Modifying the SLCM declarations
with respect to SLCMs with
multiple warheads in order to be consistent with the ALCM provisions.
- 5.
- Agreement on data exchange and tours of solid rocket motor plants
prior to treaty signature.