187. Memorandum From the President’s Acting Assistant for National Security Affairs (Keel) to Secretary of Defense Weinberger and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (Crowe)1
SUBJECT
- Initial JCS Report on Eliminating Ballistic Missiles (U)
The President has reviewed the JCS initial progress report responding to NSDD–250 in which the President tasked the JCS, under the direction of the Secretary of Defense to develop a plan that would support, fully and safely, the negotiated elimination of offensive ballistic missiles by 1996.2 The assumptions and methodology set forth in the initial report are approved. (S)
The President appreciates both the thorough report and the valuable discussion of the subject during his most recent meeting with the Joint Chiefs of Staff.3 Based on that report and discussion he wishes to emphasize the following points:
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- The President notes the assumption in the initial report that the Soviets will retain their hard-target kill ICBMs as long as possible. If the year-by-year approach of the analysis indicates that unacceptable risk would therefore result in one or more of the transition years, recommendations should be provided on arms control measures which would result in a safer phasing of reductions. (S)
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- The initial report notes that the Joint Chiefs of Staff, in seeking to hold overall levels of risk generally constant, intend to measure the capability of forces proposed in the plan against those of SIOP Revision 6C. The adequacy of deterrence in a world without ballistic missiles may be far more a matter of subjective military judgment than of quantitative measures, especially since the most critical factors may not be analytically quantifiable using today’s tools. For example, significant, but difficult to quantify, improvements in deterrence will be achieved by increasing Soviet uncertainty that they can conduct a successful attack. Thus the President reemphasizes the great value he will place on the personal military judgment of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in preparing such a plan for ballistic missile free world. (TS)
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- The President notes the views of the Joints Chiefs of Staff that, in a world without ballistic missiles, the guidance provided in NSDD–13 on the priority used to allocate weapons to the target base should be reevaluated. The analysis the Joints Chiefs of Staff are conducting should provide an excellent basis for such a reevaluation. The President looks forward to receiving any recommendations of the Joint Chiefs of Staff on this subject. (TS)
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- The President took note that the Joint Chiefs of Staff believe the fiscal guidance derived from the Fiscal Year 1988 FYDP is overly optimistic. He agrees and suggests the fiscal constraints approved for the Fiscal Year 1988–1989 Budget be used in lieu of the levels in the interim report. (C)
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- The President notes that sea-launched cruise missiles figure heavily in the JCS approach to devising future strategic forces. The President agrees with the need for diversity in our strategic forces and, if sea-launched cruise missiles are to be retained, with their employment in a strategic role as part of a transition to a world without ballistic missiles. The President notes, however, that we have agreed with the Soviets to seek an arms control solution to the problem of sea-launched cruise missiles. Additionally we should fully evaluate the contribution to our security that could be made by limiting Soviet capabilities in this same area. Thus, in devising future forces, the JCS should be explicit in noting what arms control constraints on sea-launched cruise missiles will or will not be advantageous from a military standpoint. (S)
The January 31, 1987 date for submission of the baseline plan is approved. (U)
FOR THE PRESIDENT:
- Source: Reagan Library, Michael Donley Files, Subject File, [Joint Chiefs of Staff] JCS Meeting with the President 12/19/86. Top Secret.↩
- See Document 182.↩
- See Document 183.↩
- McDaniel signed the memorandum on Keel’s behalf.↩