181. Memorandum From the Special Advisor to the President and Secretary of State on Arms Control Matters (Nitze) to Secretary of State Shultz1
SUBJECT
- Meeting with Dr. Al Mense, Chief Scientist, SDIO
I met with Dr. Mense today to discuss the status of SDI research and the approach we might take to defining permitted and prohibited testing activities.
With respect to the latter, I outlined for him the Sagdeev proposal as reported by the RAND group. I explained that we would not want to amend the ABM Treaty but rather envisage a common understanding similar to the understanding reached in the SCC in 1978 on testing in an ABM mode. This common understanding would establish definitions and criteria regarding components capable of substituting for ABM components and testing of these components in an ABM mode. I said there are two key questions that need to be addressed: (1) What are the components we know might be created that are potentially capable of playing an ABM role? (2) What are the criteria which would define testing of these components in an ABM mode?
[Page 604]Mense agreed with my suggestion that one such component would be a mirror in space, and a figure of merit for assessing a mirror could be its diameter. He suggested that we might, as an alternative, use a time-limited constraint, such as restricting mirrors in space within the next seven years to a diameter of less than 10 meters. We would need to avoid a limit on mirrors with a diameter of X meters or equivalent capability, because SDI would like to use smaller mirrors in conjunction to attain the capability of larger mirrors. Mense said another possible limit would be a restriction on the number of devices that could be tested simultaneously, such as a ban on testing more than three satellites at once.
For other technologies, Mense suggested the following figures of merit:
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Regarding the status of research, Mense said we have now reached the technological capability such that we could deploy beginning in 1993 a space-based kinetic kill system capable of intercepting SS–18s in boost phase. Between 1993 and 1998, we could deploy on the order of 100–200 battle stations with 7–8 weapons each. A recent key advance was the finding in the Delta 180 experiment that ultraviolet light is far superior to infrared light in tracking a missile, because it can see the missile within its plume. The SDIO has also shifted its approach toward greater autonomy within individual systems and components, which simplifies interface problems and allows proliferation of satellites to enhance survivability. This increased autonomy is made possible by advances in small computers; Mense said SDI researchers have developed a lap-sized computer that is 5–10 times faster than a CRAY supercomputer, which is currently the fastest computer in the world. They have the weight of a kinetic kill device down to 10–20 pounds for the front end and 80–100 pounds for propulsion.
Mense also said that SDIO has compiled a complete list of their proposed space experiments for the next 10 years, which he would be willing to share with us (we’ve been unable to acquire such a list to date). He offered a briefing on that subject and on their ideas regarding a possible system architecture.
This was a very productive meeting. Dr. Mense talked freely and expressed a desire to be cooperative, asking only that we keep this and future meetings closely held. This was in distinct contrast to LTG Abrahamson’s reluctance to discuss possible testing limits, based on the pressure he is under from OSD, and I’m not sure how long Mense can continue to cooperate. In any event, I plan to follow up with further discussions to the extent possible.
- Source: Department of State, Ambassador Nitze’s Personal Files 1953, 1972–1989, Lot 90D397, November–December 1986. Secret. Printed from an uninitialed copy.↩