Foreign Relations of the United States, 1981–1988, Volume XXIV, North Africa

294. Intelligence Memorandum Prepared in the Central Intelligence Agency¹

NESA M#82–10152

Washington, April 23, 1982

TUNISIAN PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESSION [portion marking not declassified]

Summary

Tunisia’s aging President Habib Bourguiba is spending less time directing policy, although he continues to dominate it. Bourguiba’s wife Wassila and various ministers, including Habib Bourguiba, Jr., will continue to compete with Prime Minister Mzali for power and influence in the period preceding Bourguiba’s departure.² Although these individuals exert varying degrees of influence, [3 lines not declassified]. The resulting inconsistencies have encouraged a government of sycophants and have alienated labor and political opposition groups seeking reform. [less than 1 line not declassified] the slogans of the ruling Destourian Socialist Party are seen as increasingly irrelevant by Tunisia’s youthful population. [portion marking not declassified]

When Bourguiba departs the scene, the Prime Minister, currently Mohamed Mzali, is the constitutionally designated successor for the remainder of the current National Assembly term which runs to November 1986. The timing of the succession will be a crucial factor in Mzali’s ability to consolidate his position and to win his first presidential election. Mzali’s success in gaining support and respect from the ruling party, labor, and opposition groups will determine the duration of his time in office. [portion marking not declassified]

Although Tunisia’s military expenditures are increasing, the military remains small and apolitical. It will probably be loyal to any legal successor. Widespread popular revolt is also unlikely. [portion marking not declassified]

Tunisian foreign relations under Mzali would emphasize the country’s nonaligned and pro-Arab status. Neither Mzali nor other presidential contenders would align Tunisia with the USSR. Tunisia almost certainly will continue to look to the US and Western Europe for military support and economic investment. [portion marking not declassified]

[Omitted here is the body of the memorandum.]

1. Source: Central Intelligence Agency, Office of the Director of Central Intelligence, Job 83M00035R, Box 17, C–384, Tunisia. Secret; [handling restrictions not declassified]. Prepared in the Maghreb Branch, Arab-Israeli Division, Office of Near East/South Asia Analysis, Central Intelligence Agency, using information available as of April 23.
2. In telegram 2752 from Tunis, April 8, the Embassy reported: “Although the Prime Minister Mohamed Mzali has had his ups and downs, the regime is probably stronger now than when he took office two years ago. He has been the prime force behind Tunisia’s process of political liberalization.” The Embassy continued: “Despite their somewhat ambivalent relationship, Mzali retains Bourguiba’s support as the best qualified Tunisian to lead the country once Bourguiba’s rule ends.” (Department of State, Central Foreign Policy File, Electronic Telegrams, D820186–0124)