195. Paper Prepared in the Bureau of Intelligence and Research, Department of State1
(U) MOROCCO: PROSPECTS FOR POLITICAL STABILITY
(C/NF) Summary
Economic difficulties and pressures for political liberalization portend severe trouble for the Moroccan regime. King Hassan has a variety of political assets, however, including wide acceptance of the legitimacy of the monarchy, his special relationship with the armed forces, disunity among the political parties, and his ability to manipulate his political rivals. Over the short term of 1 to 3 years, Hassan’s chances to retain his throne are 70–90 percent.
In the longer term of 5 to 15 years, however, prospects for the regime’s survival are less positive. Over time, the divided nature of the political elite, lack of national consensus on long-term political goals, and the growing gap between popular expectations and the regime’s capacity to meet them will work against the Moroccan monarchy’s survival.
[Omitted here is the body of the paper.]
- Source: Reagan Library, Near East and South Asia Affairs Directorate, King Hassan, Morocco Meeting w/President, 10/27/81, 11:30 Luncheon at 12:00. Secret; Noforn. Drafted by John Damis; approved by Myles Greene.↩