336. Intelligence Memorandum Prepared in the Central Intelligence Agency1
The Falklands Dispute:
Implications for US Relations With Latin America
Summary
The final outcome of the Falklands crisis will determine the extent and duration of related damages to US ties with Latin America. The broadest and most lasting impact would be caused by heavy Argentine casualties or Argentine humiliation. [portion marking not declassified]
Even if the crisis were to be resolved under conditions well short of that worst case, the US decision to support the United Kingdom—and especially Washington’s imposition of sanctions on Argentina—will leave the US position in Latin America somewhat impaired. Relations with several countries probably will be cool for a few years. Over time, losses can be partially, even substantially redressed. Much will depend on the efficacy of US damage-limiting measures—and, again, on the severity of the outcome on Argentina. [portion marking not declassified]
The principal abiding consequence of the crisis in both bilateral and regional terms will be to reinforce factors that have progressively reduced the once great US influence in the region. The extent of deepening of that gradual but persistent effect will vary from country to country and from sub-region to sub-region. It will be more pronounced in South America than in the Caribbean Basin, where the net effect on US interests will be minor. [portion marking not declassified]
[Omitted here is the body of the intelligence memorandum.]
- Source: Central Intelligence Agency, Office of Support Services (DI), Job 84T01067R: Production Case Files (’81–’82), Box 1, ALA M Projects 82–10068 through 82–10081. Secret; [handling restriction not declassified]. The memorandum was requested by Inman. The memorandum was prepared by the South America Division, Office of African and Latin American Analysis of the Directorate of Intelligence, based upon information available through May 31. The memorandum was coordinated with the Directorate of Operations, the National Intelligence Council, and the National Intelligence Officer for Latin America.↩