Office of the Historian

47. Information Memorandum From the Assistant Secretary of State for Intelligence and Research (Abramowitz) to Secretary of State Shultz1

Washington, August 6, 1987

SUBJECT

  • East Europe—The Gorbachev Impact

Although any Soviet leader is bound to have a strong influence on his East European allies, what Gorbachev’s impact will be is still unclear—even while most observers are convinced his policies will bring noticeable change. The attached study2 concludes that:

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Basic Soviet objectives in Eastern Europe—notably Moscow’s desire to retain control—have not changed under Gorbachev. Emphases have changed: much greater stress is now put on economic progress, less on ideological conformity.
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Reduction of East European burdens on the USSR’s own economic development will play an enhanced role in Soviet relations with the area for the immediate future.
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Soviet pressure for bloc economic improvement includes a push to reduce Western economic influence, while increasing access to Western funds and technology.
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The East Europeans have responded to stepped-up Soviet pressure for coordination of Pact foreign policy by increasing their own diplomatic activism.
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On the other hand, they have been slow, and selective, in implementing economic reforms, fearing the disruptive impact on domestic stability.
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The East European regimes have been even more reluctant to encourage Gorbachev-style glasnost, both because they face a more volatile level of domestic discontent than does the USSR and because of their own uncertainty about the ultimate fate of Gorbachev’s program.

  1. Source: Department of State, Official Correspondence of Deputy Secretary of State John C. Whitehead, July 1982–January 1989, Lot 89 D 139, EE Trip: Belgrade, Yugoslavia, November 13–14. Confidential. Drafted by Charles Smith (INR/SEE) on August 5. Abramowitz wrote “Mort A” above his name in the “From” line. An unknown hand initialed and dated the top of the memorandum on August 6.↩
  2. Attached but not printed is an undated paper entitled “East Europe’s Reaction to Gorbachev: Leadership Resistance and Public Expectations.”↩