Foreign Relations of the United States, 1981–1988, Volume IV, Soviet Union, January 1983–March 1985

273. Memorandum Prepared in the Central Intelligence Agency¹

Washington, September 14, 1984

SUBJECT

• What To Expect From Gromyko

Andrey Gromyko will come to Washington at the peak of his political career and with 45 years of experience in negotiating with the United States. Neither his increasing influence in the Kremlin nor his long exposure to US leaders—he has met every President since Hoover—has mellowed the Soviet Foreign Minister. Westerners who have met with him over the years report that, if anything, he has grown more suspicious of the United States. [portion marking not declassified]

Gromyko will come as an emissary of the Soviet leadership as a whole and will report fully to his colleagues on his meeting with the President. At the same time, he personally is a principal architect of the tough Soviet line toward Washington and has a stake in proving that it will lead eventually to more moderate US policies. His strong-minded instincts will color his presentation and his perceptions of what the President will tell him. His recommendations upon returning to Moscow will do much to shape the Soviet approach to bilateral relations for months and even a year or so to come. [portion marking not declassified]

Operating Style

He does not like small talk and prefers a no-nonsense approach in negotiating situations. He rarely couches his comments in ideological terms or engages in discussions about the relative merits of the Soviet and American political systems. He is a dour, sober-sided person and delivers his remarks without enthusiasm. He is cagey about starting a substantive discussion and likes for his adversary to show his hand first. As in previous conversations with recent US Presidents, Gromyko is likely to be tough—even abrasive—in presenting Soviet positions. He has long been unwilling to make even small concessions in the interest of getting to the heart of an issue or finding common ground. [portion marking not declassified]

Soviet Motives for Agreeing to Visit

Gromyko will be intent especially on making a personal assessment of the President and gauging how his personality and convictions affect US policies. He will probe in various ways to estimate the prospects for doing business during his second term. [portion marking not declassified]

He may seek to evoke the President’s reactions both by delivering a strong presentation of Soviet views and by occasionally hinting at flexibility. He is unlikely to use the meeting with the President, however, either to provoke a further deterioration in relations or to offer a quick deal. [portion marking not declassified]

He may expect the President to raise the possibility of a summit. Given Chernenko’s health, he is likely to hew to the standard Soviet position that such a meeting must be well prepared and based on some degree of mutual understanding on fundamental issues. [portion marking not declassified]

Bilateral Issues

Gromyko’s remarks probably will hone in on bilateral issues, particularly arms control. He will criticize US defense and arms control policies, harping on two major allegations:

—That the United States seeks to upset an existing military balance and achieve superiority through a massive buildup of arms. To support this charge, he will refer to US defense programs for strategic and space systems, reject any notion that the USSR has upset the military balance, and staunchly assert that sufficient Soviet military programs will be undertaken to offset US defense efforts. [portion marking not declassified]

—That the United States is not serious about arms control and puts forward proposals deliberately designed to be unacceptable and to camouflage a continued arms buildup. He may charge that the United States is setting preconditions for space talks, holding up ratification of existing nuclear testing treaties, and refusing to resume negotiations on a comprehensive test ban. [portion marking not declassified]

Gromyko probably will devote a substantial portion of his remarks to the issue of space talks. He is likely to argue strongly for a moratorium on the testing of space weapons, claiming that talks would be meaningless if such tests continue. He may reiterate the statement in Chernenko’s early September Pravda interview² that progress in the area of space talks could “facilitate” progress on limiting and reducing “other” strategic arms, possibly hinting that US agreement to a moratorium on ASAT testing might lead to a resumption of strategic arms talks. He probably will reject any suggestion, however, that space talks be combined with INF and START talks in a single negotiating forum. In broad terms, Gromyko is likely to argue that US ASAT and ABM testing threatens to undermine the basis of strategic arms agreements and that it will create a new strategic, political, and psychological climate. [portion marking not declassified]

Gromyko will maintain that arms control agreements are needed by the United States no less than by the Soviet Union and must be based on the principle of equality and equal security. He may complain that US charges of Soviet SALT violations demonstrate US ill will, and he is certain to claim the USSR is fulfilling all its obligations under past agreements. He is likely to assert that US questions regarding treaty compliance should be addressed confidentially. If pressed on this issue, he will lay out counter-accusations of US violations. In an effort to probe US intentions, he may ask about US willingness to continue to abide by SALT limitations, particularly the ABM Treaty. [portion marking not declassified]

He is likely to claim that preventing nuclear war is the cornerstone of Soviet foreign policy and refer to a laundry list of Soviet proposals. In this regard, he may:

—Reiterate the standard Soviet pledge not to be the first to use nuclear weapons and criticize US reluctance to assume a similar obligation.

—Call for a mutual freeze of the nuclear arsenals of both sides.

He also likes to recall the 1946 Soviet proposal to ban nuclear weapons—a proposal he tabled while Ambassador to the United Nations.³ [portion marking not declassified]

Regarding Moscow’s position on reductions in nuclear arms, Gromyko probably will highlight the Soviet proposal at START that called for a 25 percent reduction of the strategic armaments of both sides. Concerning INF, he probably will contend that US missile deployments in Europe have created a new situation and maintain that negotiations cannot resume while such deployments continue. He may hint that a moratorium on further US deployments in Europe might be sufficient basis for resumed negotiations. In meetings this summer with UK Foreign Secretary Howe and Senator McGovern, he avoided an explicit call for the removal of US missiles already deployed in Europe.⁴ He will continue to insist, however, that British and French missiles be taken into account in any agreement. [portion marking not declassified]

Gromyko probably will refuse to discuss the situation of dissident Soviet physicist Andrey Sakharov although he may state that he is alive, well, and working. In May, when Australian Foreign Minister Hayden brought up Sakharov’s treatment, he cut off conversation on the subject and said that Moscow would not talk about Sakharov with “anybody.” [portion marking not declassified]

Public Followup

Gromyko’s public comments after the meeting are likely to be reserved or downbeat, designed to defeat any expectation of a breakthrough in relations. Moscow is well aware of the impact of this meeting on the US elections. Gromyko’s public comments are likely to be carefully crafted to maintain pressure on the President from domestic constituencies eager to see an easing of US-Soviet tensions and tangible progress toward a renewed arms dialogue. We consider it somewhat less likely that Gromyko will assail the Administration in harshly critical terms in an effort to embarrass the President. Gromyko personally is clearly capable of such a performance, but Moscow’s agreement to the meeting and the apparent Soviet assumption that the Kremlin will be dealing with the President for the next four years suggest that Gromyko will adopt a more measured public posture. [portion marking not declassified]

Foreign Policy Issues

Although Gromyko will concentrate in substantive discussions on exploring the President’s intentions on bilateral issues, he probably also will raise a number of global issues that have been irritants in relations. In addition to Arab-Israeli issues, there are other possible areas of dispute:

—He will reject criticism of Soviet intervention in Afghanistan and rule out the possibility of Soviet withdrawal until external assistance to the insurgents is terminated and the Communist regime in Kabul is accepted as legitimate. He may repeat the proposal that a political resolution must be fashioned by the states in the region (Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iran) with appropriate guarantees of non-interference by the United States and the USSR. [portion marking not declassified]

—On the Iran-Iraq war, he will argue the USSR has regional interests it must protect and might insist on international guarantees of freedom of navigation in the Persian Gulf. He will reject any US claim of special interest in the area. [portion marking not declassified]

—Moscow has argued consistently that Nicaragua is not an East-West issue, but should Central America come up in the talks, he would condemn US military activity in Central America and the Caribbean and question whether Washington is serious about negotiations with Managua and the Contadora group. [portion marking not declassified]

—The Soviets have signaled privately that Southern Africa need not be a cause of Soviet-US conflict, but he may choose to raise the subject, portraying South Africa as the cause of the region’s troubles and berating Washington for encouraging Pretoria to take an “aggressive policy” in the area. [portion marking not declassified]

He is likely to be most defensive in those areas where he perceives US exploitation of Soviet weakness, particularly the Sino-Soviet dispute. He might attempt to probe US intentions toward Beijing and might warn against providing the Chinese with modern technology and military equipment. [portion marking not declassified]

1. Source: Reagan Library, Jack Matlock Files, Chronological File 1980–1986, Matlock Chron September 1984 (2/5). Secret; Sensitive. There is no drafting information on the memorandum.
2. For the full text of Chernenko’s interview, see Documents on Disarmament, 1984, pp. 658–661. In telegram 11179 from Moscow, September 4, the Embassy provided an analysis of Chernenko’s September 2 comments. (Department of State, Central Foreign Policy File, Electronic Telegrams, D840561–0003) See also Seth Mydans, “Chernenko Statement Urges Talks with U.S. on Disarmament Issues,” New York Times, September 2, 1984, p. 1.
3. Gromyko served as the Soviet permanent representative to the United Nations from 1946–48. He made the proposal on June 19, 1946, at the second meeting of the UN Atomic Energy Commission. For the text of his address, see Documents on Disarmament, 1945–1959, vol. I, pp. 17–24.
4. See footnote 4, Document 259.