204. Memorandum From the Vice Chairman of the National Intelligence Council (Meyer) to Director of Central Intelligence Casey, the Deputy Director of Central Intelligence (McMahon), and the Chairman of the National Intelligence Council (Gates)1
SUBJECT: [1 line not declassified]
[8 paragraphs (20 lines) not declassified]
[1½ lines not declassified] General Atkeson strongly recommends that NFIB Principals meet [less than 1 line not declassified]. He believes we should ask NSA to reexamine what we know about Soviet reactions to Able Archer 83. Was the Soviet response what we would expect if in fact they were anticipating a first-strike? Did we detect additional anomalies which were not brought to Community attention at the time? Note the attached NID item from 10 Nov 83, which does suggest that the Soviets responded to Able Archer 83 in an unusual fashion.2
5. You should be aware that on 3 April the US will begin a set of exercises led by NIGHT TRAIN, a worldwide procedural nuclear command post exercise. These will include a live firing of a naval Poseidon missile. If in fact the Soviets were scared by Able Archer, these upcoming exercises could really frighten them. This raises the question of whether you want to make the Secretary of Defense and other appropriate officials aware of the possibility that the Soviet level of concern may be considerably higher than generally believed.
- Source: Central Intelligence Agency, National Intelligence Council, Job 88T00528R: Policy Files (1982–1984), Box 1, Folder 1: VC/NIC Chron January–March 1984. Top Secret; [codeword not declassified].↩
- See Document 134.↩
- Top Secret; [codeword not declassified].↩