Foreign Relations of the United States, 1977–1980, Volume XXVII, Western Europe

77. Memorandum From the President’s Assistant for National Security Affairs (Brzezinski) to President Carter¹

Washington, May 23, 1979

SUBJECT

• Canadian Elections and Joe Clark: Indications for the Future (C)

Coalition Coming up

Though a new Canadian government will not be officially formed until Governor-General Schreyer accepts Trudeau’s resignation (expected by Friday² noon), there seems little doubt that 39-year-old Progressive Conservative Leader Joe Clark will become Canada’s next Prime Minister.³ Trudeau’s defeat in yesterday’s national elections was conclusive (in Ontario alone eight Trudeau ministers lost), with Clark’s party winning a solid plurality of 135 seats out of a parliamentary total of 282.⁴ (U)

To govern as PM, however, Clark will have to negotiate support from outside the Tories, probably Ed Broadbent’s left-leaning, labor-oriented New Democratic Party—which will be sure to demand implementation of its own programs as the price for support. The problems of melding rather different Tory and NDP philosophies could be overcome, at least for the short term, by the two parties’ mutual desire to take power in Ottawa after years in the wilderness. (U)

Clark and his Party

Joe Clark is described as intelligent, but not dazzlingly so; pragmatic; cautious; someone who seeks and takes advice, but makes his own decisions. His major problem is one of image. He lacks charisma, appears somewhat stuffy, suffers the handicap of youth, and on more than one occasion has provided a merciless press—and the Liberal Party—with incidents or statements to lampoon. (C)

Clark excels in organizational ability. When he became leader of the Tories three years ago, he took over a fractious, divided party that regularly snatched defeat from the jaws of victory through its public feuding and internal backbiting.

Clark has successfully unified the party and demonstrates impressive, though by no means complete, control over the Tory caucus in Parliament. The rise in party fortunes has attracted better people into its ranks, and some of these are part of the Tory front bench in Parliament. The U.S. Embassy assesses those he would probably appoint to ministerial positions as inexperienced but, by and large, a loyal, dedicated, and competent group of individuals. (C)

National Unity

This remains Canada’s (and Clark’s) prime concern. Clark has become increasingly confident on this issue and has laid out a program that he believes will both defuse the Quebec separatist question and the discontent of some of the anglophone provinces. He claims he can overcome the much ballyhooed “French-English split” by appointing francophones to his government. He will have to appoint from outside the ranks of Parliament, since only two Tory incumbents were reelected from Quebec. Clark also plans to call a federal-provincial conference on constitutional reform before Quebec can hold its referendum on sovereignty-association, now expected in late 1979 or early 1980, “to show Quebecers it is possible for this new government to get some new movement in the federal-provincial impasse.” (C)

Foreign Policy

Clark has not yet really focused on foreign policy, but what he has said indicates some change in three areas: relations with the United States, defense spending, and relations with Israel.⁵ (U)

— U.S.–Canadian Relations. Clark thinks Trudeau’s “third option”—reducing dependence on the U.S. by expanding relations with Europe and Asia—makes no sense. He calls the United States “the most important ally Canada has” and argues that, although the two countries will inevitably have differences, “we should not pick fights with our friends.” He has not yet worked out a specific policy toward the United States, and told Ambassador Enders that he would take the first year or so to formulate one. (C)

— Defense. Clark has deplored the state of Canadian defense preparedness and Trudeau’s failure to meet the 3% goal. He wants to increase real defense spending, but his commitments there could be diluted by his plans for a balanced budget and lower taxes. (U)

— Israel. Clark has promised to move the Canadian Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and recognizes the latter as the Israel capital on the grounds that the Israeli–Egyptian peace treaty “opens the way for Canada to take positive initiatives in the Middle East.” He also favors financial penalties for companies complying with the Arab boycott. (These pronouncements must be viewed, however, in the light of Toronto’s heavily Jewish districts and in a coalition partnership would be subject to change).⁶ (C)

1. Source: Carter Library, National Security Affairs, Brzezinski Material, Brzezinski Office File, Box 6, Country Chron, Canada, 1–6/79. Confidential. Sent for information. Carter initialed the top of the page.
2. May 25.
3. On June 4, Clark became Prime Minister. (Andrew H. Malcolm, “Clark is Sworn in as Canadian Leader,” New York Times, June 5, 1979, p. A3)
4. In the general election held on May 22, Clark’s Progressive Conservative Party won 136 seats, Trudeau’s Liberal Party won 114 seats, and the New Democratic Party won 26 seats. (Henry Giniger, “Canada’s Conservatives Win Large Plurality in Commons; Trudeau Concedes to Clark,” New York Times, May 23, 1979, p. A1) On May 25, Carter sent Clark a letter that congratulated him on the election results. (Telegram 133106 to Ottawa, May 25; National Archives, RG 59, Central Foreign Policy File, D790237–0242)
5. In telegram 2523 from Ottawa, the Embassy reported: “Joe Clark evinces no strong personal interest in foreign affairs and defense, and he is generally a novice in these areas. His principal preoccupations, as he assumes the new prime ministership, are: to organize the Conservatives as the governing party after 16 years out of power; to deal with the problem of Quebec; and to get the economy moving.” (National Archives, RG 59, Central Foreign Policy File, D790238–0995)
6. On June 27, Carter and Vance met with Thatcher, Clark, and the British and Canadian Foreign Ministers from 5:45 until 7:30 p.m. at the U.S. Embassy Residence in Tokyo; during the last 15 minutes of the meeting, Carter and Vance met alone with Thatcher and Carrington. (Carter Library, Presidential Daily Diary) No memorandum of conversation for their meeting has been found.