Foreign Relations, 1977–1980, Volume XXIII, Mexico, Cuba, and the Caribbean

58. Memorandum for the Record Prepared in the Central Intelligence Agency¹

Washington, August 10, 1979

SUBJECT

• Working Group Meeting on Soviet Ground Forces in Cuba

1. [name not declassified] chaired a meeting on [less than 1 line not declassified] to review the growing body of [less than 1 line not declassified] evidence that indicates a Soviet ground forces brigade is stationed in Cuba. [name not declassified] OSR/[initials not declassified], [name not declassified], OPA/[initials not declassified], and [name not declassified], OCR/USSR, attended the meeting along with analysts from DIA, State, NSA, Army, Air Force and OIA. [portion marking not declassified]

2. The working group concluded that a Soviet ground forces unit—which they are calling a brigade, commanded by an Army colonel—is in Cuba. The group also tentatively concluded that:

—The Brigade is not garrisoned at a single location as it would be if it were stationed in the USSR.

—The unit structure suggested by the [less than 1 line not declassified] closely resembles a standard Soviet motorized rifle regiment, which suggests it could have a maximum strength of some 2,300 men.

—The brigade is not a cadre (skeletal) unit, but its current personnel strength is not known. Some analysts believe that because the brigade is so far from the USSR it probably is nearly fully manned. [portion marking not declassified]

3. Although the working group did not estimate the missions of the Soviet brigade, it cast doubt on two hypotheses that have been consistently advanced. Inasmuch as [less than 1 line not declassified] the unit’s training is virtually identical to ground forces training in the USSR and contains no [less than 1 line not declassified] testing equipment, the brigade does not appear to have a tropical training mission. Because [less than 1 line not declassified] any contact between the unit and the Cuban Army, the brigade probably does not have the mission of performing tactical demonstrations for or otherwise training Cubans. [portion marking not declassified]

4. During the meeting, some interesting additional facts came to light. [4 lines not declassified] the year the first instances of ground force training were detected. This suggests that the Soviets may have planned to form the brigade prior to the Cuban intervention in Angola in 1975. [portion marking not declassified]

5. Our knowledge of the Cuban order-of-battle, [1 line not declassified], is poor. Considering that the Soviet brigade is stationed at several locations and may be colocated with Cuban units, a great deal of basic research may need to be done before the components of the Soviet brigade can be identified [less than 1 line not declassified]. [portion marking not declassified]

1. Source: Central Intelligence Agency, Office of Support Services, Job 81T00031R: Production Case Files, Box 1, Folder 84: Working Group Meeting on Soviet Ground Forces in Cuba, Copy No. 7. Top Secret; [codewords not declassified]. Drafted by [name not declassified] on August 10. Copies were sent to, among others, Clarke and the NFAC Senior Review Panel.