207. Memorandum From the President’s Assistant for National Security Affairs (Brzezinski) to President Carter1
SUBJECT
- Jamaica Update (U)
Elections in Jamaica are unlikely to occur before September because of the length of time required to register and enumerate voters. By then, the economy may be bankrupt—i.e., unable to purchase imports—or approaching it. (S)
Seaga’s Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) is reported to be far in front in the polls, and as shortages become more of a problem and unemployment reaches 30–40%, most political observers believe he will win a free election decisively. The problem is that the radicals have apparently gained control of Manley’s political party (PNP), and there is an increasing number of reports that they have not only sent hundreds of party members to Cuba for training, but they have also received arms as well. Recently, the Police Federation called for the resignation of Manley’s radical Minister of National Security, who is reported to have been involved in a large shipment of arms which arrived on the coast of Jamaica from Cuba. (S)
The Venezuelans and the British are as concerned as we that the radicals in Manley’s party are escalating the violence to provoke a clash and promulgate an emergency. They could then ask the Cubans for help. (S)
On May 4 in a conversation with Andy Young, Manley conveyed his suspicion that the NSC was undertaking a destabilization program against him. I am afraid that Andy not only failed to deny this, but [Page 505] indeed may have even encouraged Manley to think this was possible.2 Andy is very close to Manley and has told us that he will virtually campaign for him, either directly or by identifying Seaga with right-wing nuts in the US. We have tried to encourage him to adopt a more neutral approach to the Jamaica elections. Andy thinks that Manley is still very much in control of his party, that Manley will win the election, and that Manley’s victory is not only in the interests of Jamaica but also the US. We question each of these points, but intend to continue to pursue a policy which stresses our desire for free and peaceful elections (hopefully with international observers) and our impartiality with respect to the two political candidates. (S)
- Source: Carter Library, National Security Affairs, Staff Material, North/South, Pastor, Country, Box 26, Jamaica, 4–6/80. Secret; Sensitive. Sent for information. Carter initialed the memorandum on June 16. Although no drafting information appears on the memorandum, Pastor forwarded a draft to Brzezinski on June 6 and commented, “I debriefed Andy on his conversations with Manley, and was disturbed that he seems to be tipping closer and closer to a paranoid world of conspiracy theories,” adding, “Andy naturally believes that we may have a malign influence on the President on Jamaica, and because he may feel even more strongly about the reelection of Manley than he does about the reelection of Jimmy Carter, I have no doubt that he will get through to the President at some point in time.” (Carter Library, National Security Affairs, Brzezinski Material, Country File, Box 40, Jamaica, 1/77–10/79 through Japan, 6–12/78) Young met with Manley on May 4.↩
- In a May 31 memorandum to Brzezinski, Pastor stated that on May 24, Prensa Latina, a Cuban news agency, reported that “Andrew Young, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, and Julian Dixon, congressman from Los Angeles, have confirmed that the U.S. National Security Council at this time is developing a plan to overthrow the Jamaican government.” (Carter Library, National Security Affairs, Staff Material, North/South, Pastor, Country, Box 26, Jamaica, 4–6/80)↩