Office of the Historian

104. Memorandum From the President’s Assistant for National Security Affairs (Brzezinski) to President Carter1

Washington, May 14, 1980

SUBJECT

  • U.S. and Friendly Forces Versus Cuban Forces in the Caribbean

You asked for a brief net assessment of allied and Cuban forces which could be brought to bear in the Caribbean within 72 hours.

ALLIED FORCES

U.S.

  • Ground Forces

    • 1 Ranger Battalion
    • 2 Airborne Brigades
    • 2 Marine Battalions
    • Air Forces
    • 23 Tactical Fighter Squadrons (528 aircraft)
    • 2 Tactical Reconnaissance Squadrons (42 aircraft)
    • 3 Marine Attack Squadrons (45 aircraft)
    • 1 Marine Fighter Squadron (12 aircraft)
    • 6 Navy Fighter Squadrons (77 aircraft)
    • 10 Navy Attack Squadrons (149 aircraft)

  • Naval Forces

    • 1 Carrier
    • 3 Cruisers
    • 5 Destroyers
    • 8 AMPHIBs (LPH/LST)
    • 6 Frigates
    • 1 Oiler
    • 1 Command Ship
    • 4 Submarines (SSN)
    • British
    • 1 Destroyer
    • 1 Frigate
    • 1 Oiler
    • Dutch
    • 2 Destroyers
    • French
    • 1 Lighter Transport
    • 1 Patrol Boat

CUBAN FORCES

  • Ground Forces

    • 2 Armour Divisions
    • 2 Mechanized Infantry Divisions
    • 11 Infantry Divisions
    • 1 Artillery Divisions
    • 15 Reserve Divisions
    • Air Forces
    • 89 All Weather Fighters (MIG–23/21)
    • 75 Day Fighters (MIG–21/17/15)

  • Naval Forces

    • 2 Attack Submarines
    • 26 Missile Attack Boats (KOMAR/OSA)
    • 14 Submarine Chasers
    • 32 Patrol Boats

Conclusion: The US, even without its allies, can mount enormous air and naval superiority within 72 hours. US ground forces would be of little or no military significance vis-a-vis the Cuban ground forces, which, upon mobilization of the 15 reserve divisions, would out number US ground forces many times. The US ground force is about 1 division equivalent. Cuban ground forces are 15 active and 15 reserve, plus 1 artillery division, a strength of about 146,000. For details see the attached book prepared by Defense.2

  1. Source: Carter Library, National Security Affairs, Brzezinski Material, Country File, Box 14, Cuba, 5/80. Secret. Sent for information. Drafted by Odom. Carter initialed the memorandum indicating that he saw it. In a covering memorandum to Aaron, May 13, Odom observed, “we can buzz around in the air and sea but we would get licked if we try to send Teddy Roosevelt up San Juan Hill again.”↩
  2. Not attached.↩