56. Intelligence Assessment Prepared in the Central Intelligence Agency1
Kampuchea: Famine, Fighting, and Refugees [portion marking not declassified]
Key Judgments
We estimate that the Kampuchean population has been reduced over the past decade from more than 7 million to around 5.8 million. At the same time, the amount of farmland in crop production has been severely reduced. [portion marking not declassified]
The estimated numbers of persons facing starvation is in the range of 2.25–3.5 million. The brunt of this disaster will be borne by those living in or near towns and cities. [portion marking not declassified]
Estimates of food assistance needed through December to prevent mass starvation range between 150,000 and 200,000 metric tons of grain. A substantial amount of medical supplies will also be required. The picture over the longer term is no less gloomy, although the amount of external assistance needed is as yet undeterminable. [portion marking not declassified]
Many factors will influence the refugee flow, but, should famine become widespread, tens of thousands each month may try to cross into Thailand. [portion marking not declassified]
Heng Samrin/Vietnamese authorities will probably allow large amounts of relief supplies to enter but will try to impose conditions. [portion marking not declassified]
The Heng Samrin/Vietnamese administrative infrastructure in Kampuchea is not adequate for the distribution of relief supplies and cooperation by the Vietnamese military will be required. [portion marking not declassified]
Thailand will permit the passage of relief supplies both by air to Heng Samrin authorities in Phnom Penh and overland to civilians under Pol Pot’s control at the border, but may change this policy if it should be criticized publicly by Vietnam. [portion marking not declassified]
[Page 200]In the event of a new surge of refugees, the Thais will probably maintain a hardline policy and try to deny entry. They may also forcibly repatriate refugees unless prompt guarantees of permanent resettlement are forthcoming from the international community. [portion marking not declassified]
The fighting will intensify in the dry season due to start in November, and will adversely affect the security and food supplies of the civilian population. There is little prospect for a negotiated peace at present. [portion marking not declassified]
[Omitted here are the Discussion section of the memorandum and the appendix.]
- Source: Central Intelligence Agency, Office of the Director of Central Intelligence, Job 81B00401R: Subject Files of the Presidential Briefing Coordinator for [the] Director of Central Intelligence, Box 14, Folder 8: SCC Meeting Cambodia. Secret; [handling restriction not declassified]. Prepared in the National Foreign Assessment Center.↩