147. Telegram From the Embassy in India to the Department of State1
11858. Subj: The Indian Political Scene: Mid-Summer 1979.
1. C–Entire text.
2. Introduction & summary: India in mid-1979 is gripped by an increasing sense of drift and malaise which pervades not only the political arena but also extends to the economic sphere and the larger social order. Developments in recent weeks have heightened the feeling that India faces troubled times which its divided and hesitant leaders will be unable to deal with effectively. Concern over the absence of a strong, determined political leadership at the helm of government able to inspire public confidence has been increased by the apparent lack of a viable alternative within the present political structure. While it would be premature to ring alarm bells (let alone funeral chimes) for the viability of India’s democratic institutions, the potential for instability seems greater now than at any time since the Janata government came to power in 1977.
3. Political uncertainties are of course nothing new in Janata India. As readers of Embassy messages will recall, over these past two years Janata has faced a continuing series of greater and lesser crises which have stemmed largely from the coalition character of the party. The opposition has been shaken by repeated changes as the deposed Congress has sought to come to terms with its new outsider role and to deal with the political ambitions of former Prime Minister Gandhi. What seems remarkable about the present situation is that both the government party and the opposition are in obvious flux and disarray. Seen against the background of a weakening economic situation, heightened social disorders, and an increasing willingness of dissatisfied groups to resort to direct action, the simultaneous problems of the governing party and the principal opposition have made more vivid the inherent weakness and ephemeral character of present-day Indian party politics. There are those who profess confidence that from all of this will emerge the long-heralded realignment of political forces, leading in turn to a new stability and sense of direction. While such a result might eventually emerge, the short term outlook seems to be for a further increase in divisiveness and in those disintegrative tendencies [Page 397] which have so often marked the Indian political party scene. End introduction & summary.
[Omitted here is the body of the telegram.]
- Source: National Archives, RG 59, Central Foreign Policy File, D790307–0065. Confidential. Sent for information to Beijing, Bombay, Calcutta, Colombo, Dacca, Islamabad, Kabul, Kathmandu, Moscow, CINCPAC, Madras, and London.↩