52. Memorandum From Gary Sick of the National Security Council Staff to the President’s Deputy Assistant for National Security Affairs (Aaron)1
SUBJECT
- Qadhafi
Re the reading item you sent (attached).2 The Libya watchers are now generally in agreement that some kind of assassination attempt on Qadhafi occurred in April.3 The best guess is that he was wounded in the arm. The attempt on his life does not explain the assassination squads, however. In fact, it may be the reverse. The killings of Libyans overseas began in March with a murder in Rome, and it may have been this policy which led someone to make the attempt on Qadhafi.
The part of the report about the seriousness of the wound is probably exaggerated. Qadhafi has been seen by many people since that time. He appeared on Issues and Answers4 in the first half of May, and he looked healthy and whole to me at that time. He is a terrible hypochondriac, however, and a quick visit to Yugoslavia for medical treatment—perhaps for a wound that was not healing properly—is entirely possible.
Qadhafi is currently not a good actuarial risk. His unleashing of assassination squads, his quixotic mismanagement of the economy, the devastation of morale and organization in the military, and such minor items as increasingly routine torture in Libyan prisons have given an increasing number of people grievances against his rule.
[Page 144]I am struck by the recent report out of Cairo that the level of new troops going into the Western Desert is far greater than Sadat and his military aides are leading us to believe. Maybe this is just a “driver training exercise” as someone suggested, but it may also be that we are being carefully soothed in advance of a new Sadat “surprise.” You will recall that our advance warning time of the 1973 war and Sadat’s visit to Jerusalem were brief to non-existent. My guess is that something of the magnitude of an attack on Libya would not be shared with us—for reasons of security if nothing else—until just before he struck. He has promised us advance notice—but he did not say how much!!!
I can’t prove this, but I have a nagging feeling that something is going on.
Item: Ramadan begins July 16. That was when he launched in 1973.
Item: This July marks the third anniversary of the last major dustup between Egypt and Libya.
Item: Qadhafi is in the worst military shape today he has ever been.
Keep watching this space. . .5
- Source: Carter Library, National Security Affairs, Staff Material, Middle East, Subject File, Box 61, Libya: 1–8/80. Secret. A stamped notation on the memorandum, dated July 9, reads: “DA has seen.”↩
- Not attached.↩
- In telegram 213 from Tripoli, April 14, the Embassy reported on rumors circulating in Libya and Tunis that an attempt on Qadhafi’s life took place in Benghazi during the second week in April: “The report alleged that Qadhafi was shot in the arm during the attempt.” Regarding the veracity of the rumors, the Embassy wrote: “Libyan source added that this is not the first time such a reported assassination attempt against Qadhafi has been circulated. It seems Qadhafi relishes the opportunity to let such rumors build then to make a grand public appearance to show people how naive they are to believe in such rumors. Nevertheless, Qadhafi has been out of the public limelight for almost a week and a half. Just how long he will play his game of hide and seek is unknown, but given his unabashed modesty, his return is long overdue.” (National Archives, RG 59, Central Foreign Policy File, D800187–0448)↩
- Issues and Answers was a U.S. television news program featuring interviews with foreign and domestic government officials.↩
- Aaron wrote beneath this sentence: “I will. DA, 7/9/80.”↩