71. Memorandum From Secretary of State Vance to President Carter1
[Omitted here are items unrelated to the Horn of Africa.]
Somalia. I have instructed Ambassador Loughran to convey a strongly-worded message to Siad Barre containing our judgment that the Somali forces in the Ogaden face the prospect of imminent defeat.2 The message urges him to announce and implement a withdrawal, holding out the prospect of humanitarian aid to people of the Ogaden, development assistance for Somalia, and defensive military assistance if he does so. It also promises our diplomatic support for a negotiated settlement, including the placement of international observers in the Ogaden. Finally, to disabuse Siad of the notion that we will come to his aid in any event, the message cautions that unless he takes the necessary steps to withdraw his forces, U.S. law prohibits our coming to his assistance even if Somalia’s territory is invaded.
[Omitted here are items unrelated to the Horn of Africa.]
- Source: Carter Library, Plains File, Subject File, Box 13, State Department Evening Reports, 3/78. Secret.↩
- See Document 70.↩