364. Memorandum From Jerry Oplinger of the National Security Council Staff to the President’s Assistant for National Security Affairs (Brzezinski)1

SUBJECT

  • South Atlantic Nuclear Event (S)

Another mini-SCC was held today, chaired by Henry Owen, to assess the current situation and to consider a strategy paper prepared by State. [1 line not declassified] There is a continuing possibility of receiving confirmation from other sources, but there was a consensus that we should not hold up policy decisions any further awaiting new information. (S)

[Page 1091]

Dick Garwin, who participated in the technical panel [1 line not declassified] has suggested that another panel examine systematically the possibility that other natural phenomenon could have produced the [less than 1 line not declassified]. The purpose would be to calculate more accurately the probability that we are wrong. Frank Press has been asked to manage this effort, and we hope to have the results in a week or so. (S)2

There was a preliminary discussion of policy alternatives, but it was decided that this should be held until we have the results of the panel’s assessment. (S)

  1. Source: Carter Library, National Security Affairs, Staff Material, Global Issues, Box 54, Proliferation: South Atlantic Event 10/1–25/79. Secret; Sensitive; Eyes Only. A stamped notation on the memorandum reads: “ZB Has Seen.”
  2. Brzezinski wrote “ok” in the right-hand margin.