Foreign Relations of the United States, 1977–1980, Volume XVI, Southern Africa

148. Memorandum From Secretary of State Vance to President Carter¹

Washington, April 14, 1977

[Omitted here is material unrelated to Rhodesia.]

4. David Owen’s Trip: The verdict is not yet in on what David Owen has accomplished in his African trip.² He has seen all the Rhodesian Nationalists except Sithole, also Vorster, Smith and the key African Presidents with the exception of Kaunda and the Nigerians. As you know, we have endorsed his intention to meet Neto in Angola.³ While somewhat encouraged by the results of his conversations so far, Owen does not underestimate the difficulties which lie ahead.

Nyerere’s and Machel’s reactions to Owen’s proposal for a Constitutional Conference were positive and even the somewhat negative responses of Nkomo and Mugabe were muted. African concerns with Owen’s proposal include the fear that greater American involvement could stimulate Soviet opposition; they also want to know how Smith can be forced to accept a settlement and what will be arrangements for security forces in Rhodesia after an agreement is reached. We have a disturbing report from British intelligence indicating Machel may have had second thoughts and that he and Kaunda will oppose the Owen initiative. While this might not prove to be the case, it is a reminder that support from the Front Line Presidents is far from assured.

Vorster voiced no objection to pursuing negotiations on the basis of Owen’s proposal and Smith did not reject the idea. We cannot exclude the possibility that when Smith sees Owen for a second time in Salisbury on Saturday, Smith may reject the Owen initiative. He is under considerable right-wing political pressure. The South Africans would like us to believe that the prospects for Smith’s acceptance are good. The South African Foreign Minister called us today to say that South Africans have moved Smith along further than has ever been the case and Smith will not reject the British proposals. The South Africans asked that we not be taken aback by negative public statements which Smith will have to make to satisfy his right-wing critics.

Owen seeks no more than agreement in principle from the parties to the process which he is discussing. Once back in London he will review the results of his trip with the British Cabinet and then be in touch with us on next steps.

[Omitted here is material unrelated to Rhodesia.]

1. Source: Carter Library, Plains File, Subject File, Box 37, State Department Evening Reports, 4/77. Secret. Carter initialed the memorandum.
2. Owen visited Dar es Salaam, Maputo, Cape Town, Gaborone, Lusaka, and Salisbury April 11–16.
3. Owen visited Luanda and Lagos on April 17.