93. Intelligence Summary Cable Prepared in the Department of Defense1
[less than 1 line not declassified] Please pass to SecDef eyes only for the Secretary of Defense JSI–7 25 Dec 79
Current Intelligence Summary for the [less than 1 line not declassified] (Supplement). (U). Ref: [less than 1 line not declassified].2 Current Intelligence Summary Nr Six. (U)
A. (S [codeword not declassified]) USSR-Afghanistan Update: Since the referenced message was transmitted several developments have occurred in the Soviet-Afghanistan situation.
—[1 paragraph (3 lines) not declassified]
—[1 paragraph (7 lines) not declassified]
[Page 260]2. (TS [codeword and handling restriction not declassified]) Additional ground force activity also seems to indicate continuing Soviet preparations for operations in or near Afghanistan.
—[less than 1 line not declassified] provided the initial identification of an airborne unit at Balkhash airfield located some 650 km northeast of the Afghanistan border. At least 14 BMD airborne assault vehicles and other airborne associated equipment were [less than 1 line not declassified] at the airfield and may have been there as early as the 24th.
—Additional fuel storage equipment [less than 1 line not declassified] near Termez and Kushka both located on the Afghanistan border. These locations are areas where the 360th Motorized Rifle Division and the 5th Guards Motorized Rifle Division have probably been deployed since 19 December. Stockage of fuel supplies would indicate further preparations for operations by these units.
—Finally, a convoy of at least 60 trucks [less than 1 line not declassified] near Termez, probably indicating that Soviet resupply activity into Afghanistan by motor convoy is continuing. Frequent activity of this nature has been [less than 1 line not declassified] near Termez.
3. (S [codeword not declassified]) From the above evidence, it appears the Soviets are nearing the completion of preparations for a major introduction of new combat units into Afghanistan. [6½ lines not declassified] some facets of operations in or near Afghanistan. [2 lines not declassified]
- Source: Department of Defense, Afghan War Collection, Box 4, 15 Dec–2 Jan. Top Secret; [codeword and handling restriction not declassified]. Sent for immediate night delivery eyes only for the Secretary of Defense. Drafted by [text not declassified].↩
- The referenced message was not found. An Alert Memorandum prepared in the Central Intelligence Agency, December 25, from Carlucci to Vance, Brown, Jones, and Brzezinski reads: “As you know, we have been closely monitoring Soviet military activities in Afghanistan and in the USSR itself in the last few days. On 19 December we issued an alert memorandum warning that the USSR appeared to be building up for a major move into Afghanistan. Intelligence received in the last 12 hours convinces me that [preparations?] for that operation have essentially been completed and that it probably has begun. If so, it will mark the first significant use of Soviet ground forces outside the USSR and Eastern Europe since the end of World War II.” (Central Intelligence Agency, National Intelligence Council Files, Job 81B00080R, Box 11, NI IIM 79–10017, [additional memorandum number not declassified] Alert Memo USSR-Afghanistan (27 December 1979)) For the December 19 Alert Memorandum, see Document 89.↩