92. Article in the National Intelligence Daily1
SITUATION REPORTS
AFGHANISTAN-USSR
[7 lines not declassified] In Afghanistan, a new rash of desertions and the need to reinforce several endangered provincial capitals have further strained the Afghan Army’s ability to handle the insurgency. [classification marking, codeword, and handling restriction not declassified]
[2 paragraphs (23 lines) not declassified]
[3 lines not declassified] A TU–134 aircraft that is equipped with a satellite communications capability and is normally associated with high-level Soviet military officials was seen at Balkhash on Friday with some 30 IL–76 jet transports that were apparently in an alert posture.2 [Page 258] There were at least 22 additional Soviet military cargo transport flights on Friday into the Central Asian Military District, primarily into the Balkhash and Taldy-Kurgan areas. [classification marking and codeword not declassified]
[2 paragraphs (19 lines) not declassified]
Bad weather has dominated the border area for more than a week, and the Soviets may be waiting for it to clear before they undertake further operations. [classification marking not declassified]
Soviet Press Statement
Moscow denied Western reports that Soviet combat units have been introduced into Afghanistan in a Pravda article yesterday, dismissing them as “pure fabrications” designed to “sow poisonous seeds of mistrust in relations between the Afghan and Soviet peoples.” The article also accuses the US and China of training Afghan insurgents at bases in Pakistan. [classification marking not declassified]
Military Situation in Afghanistan
The situation in the northeastern province of Badakshan remains critical, with only the capital under firm government control. [1 line not declassified] a number of soldiers had deserted with their equipment and many others could not be trusted. [classification marking not declassified]
The rebels evidently are also threatening provincial capitals in western and central Afghanistan. Fighting has been moving closer to the capital of Badghist Province, and most of Ghowr and Oruzgan provinces reportedly are controlled by the insurgents. A shortage of transport helicopters has evidently hampered reinforcement of critical areas. [classification marking and handling restriction not declassified]
The government evidently is trying to stem desertions and to increase the manpower pool from which the Army can draw. [1 line not declassified] ordered Army units throughout the country to provide information on the families of deserters, presumably so that action can be taken against them. The Army has also transferred some troops out of their home districts to keep them from returning to their villages. [classification marking and handling restriction not declassified]
Earlier this month, the government reportedly lowered the draft age from 22 to 20 and stopped issuing passports to draft-aged males. Kabul has also begun to offer good salaries to discharged servicemen to protect their own villages. This program apparently is designed to free regular Army units for combat elsewhere and to discourage former soldiers from joining the rebels. [classification marking and handling restriction not declassified]
[Page 259]Pakistani Visit
Pakistani Foreign Affairs Adviser Agha Shahi has postponed his visit to Kabul until 30–31 December, ostensibly because of bad flying weather. The excuse may have some validity, but the decision to delay a week because of Shahi’s other commitments may reflect a lack of enthusiasm for the trip stemming from the poor prospects for any significant improvement in relations between Kabul and Islamabad. [less than 1 line, classification marking, and handling restriction not declassified]
[Omitted here is a map.]
- Source: Central Intelligence Agency, Office of the Director of Central Intelligence, Job 81B00401R: Subject Files of the Presidential Briefing Coordinator for DCI (1977–81), Box 8, Afghanistan Crisis—December 1979, NIDs. Top Secret; [codeword and handling restriction not declassified].↩
- Friday was December 21.↩