343. Article in the President’s Daily Brief1
AFGHANISTAN: ONE YEAR LATER
In the year since their Christmas Eve invasion, the Soviets have achieved their core objective in Afghanistan—they have kept a Communist regime in place in the country. This has come at considerable international political cost and military difficulties. Moreover, the Soviets have so far made only limited progress toward establishing conditions that will permit the Babrak regime to stand on its own.
—**Despite the Soviets’ increased involvement in military operations and a steady refinement of their anti-insurgent tactics, the insurgency goes on in every province at as high a level as any time since the Soviet invasion.
—The Afghan Army, which must be rebuilt if a Communist government is to survive without direct Soviet support, still numbers no more than about 20,000. It continues to be hampered by defections and by frequent clashes between adherents to the two factions of the Afghan Communist Party.**
—The Afghan Government is weak, lacks popular support, and is virtually paralyzed by the same factional squabbling that weakens the Army.
[1½ lines not declassified] Soviet military leaders on the scene recognize the difficulties.
[2 paragraphs (12 lines) not declassified]
Soviet Commitment
**Whatever their inner misgivings on how things have worked out in Afghanistan so far, the Soviets show no outward sign of compromise. [1 line not declassified] Soviet leaders have reiterated that any talks on Afghanistan must be with Babrak’s government and that there can be no consideration of a Soviet troop withdrawal until so-called foreign assistance to the insurgents is halted.**
**The Soviets, meanwhile, have built officers quarters and barracks, improved roads and runways, constructed an oil pipeline, and put permanent bridges over the river between the USSR and Afghanistan—all signs that they expect to be engaged militarily for a long while.**2
- Source: Central Intelligence Agency, Office of the Director of Central Intelligence, Job 81B00401R: Subject Files of the Presidential Briefing Coordinator for DCI (1977–81), Box 7, Afghanistan Crisis—December 1980, PDBs. Top Secret; For the President Only. The full version of this President’s Daily Brief was not filed with this collection. The article printed here was found in this form.↩
- Carter released a statement on December 24, the anniversary of the Soviet invasion, calling on the Soviet Union to withdraw its forces and cooperate to find a political solution. He concluded: “The Afghan people and their struggle have not been forgotten and will not be forgotten by the rest of the world.” See Public Papers: Carter, 1980–81, Book III, pp. 2835–2836.↩