Foreign Relations of the United States, 1977–1980, Volume XII, Afghanistan

316. Analysis Paper Prepared in the Bureau of Intelligence and Research¹

Washington, September 12, 1980

1. PAKISTAN: PRESIDENT ZIA STANDING FIRM ON AFGHANISTAN

Pakistan, with a view toward the Islamic Foreign Ministers meeting in New York, October 6–7, is searching for ways to retain the initiative on the Afghan crisis. The three-man Islamic Conference Standing Committee (ICSC) is no longer a useful vehicle. Pakistan’s diplomatic activity has led the British to conclude that Zia may be wobbling, a view we do not share. While Pakistan is deeply concerned about the degree of support that Islamabad would receive if the Soviets pressed it both militarily and diplomatically, Zia and Foreign Minister Shahi are not prepared to abandon their goals of a broad-based regime in Kabul and the withdrawal of Soviet troops.

Pakistan is focusing on action in the UN to keep pressure on the Soviets to withdraw their troops. Islamabad feels compelled to come up with feasible proposals since Pakistan, which inscribed the Afghan issue on the agenda of the UN General Assembly, does not want an “unreliable” nonaligned state (e.g., Cuba or India) to seize the initiative.

Current Pakistani thinking, as reflected in [less than 1 line not declassified] seems to be that the best alternative to the now defunct ICSC is a small international conference under UN aegis. This conference might include the five permanent Security Council members, Afghanistan’s regional neighbors, and representatives from the Karmal regime.

The Romanians, who have been trying to obtain agreement on holding an international conference, told the Pakistanis that the Soviets could accept the notion of such a meeting. Zia and Shahi believe that Moscow has tacitly accepted this scheme.

It is not clear, however, if the Soviets would go along with the type of conference that the Pakistanis are advocating. The Soviet Ambassador in Islamabad told the Pakistanis that his government rejected the concept of an international conference; he reiterated the initial Soviet opposition to the Islamic Conference resolution in May proposing such a gathering. Among the objectives of the Pakistani diplomatic delegation scheduled to arrive in Moscow this weekend (and led by Foreign Secretary Piracha) is clarification of Soviet views.

1. Source: Carter Library, National Security Affairs, Brzezinski Material, President’s Daily CIA Brief File, Box 30, 9/12/80–9/17/80. Top Secret; [codeword not declassified]. Carter initialed “C” in the upper right corner.