129. Article in the President’s Daily Brief1
USSR-AFGHANISTAN: Situation report
We estimate that as many as 40,000 Soviet troops were in Afghanistan as of yesterday.
It now appears that units from two airborne divisions based in western USSR participated in the coup in Kabul and that a third airborne division at Fergana sent units to the Salang Pass, Bagram, and to major provisional [provincial] capitals in central and western Afghanistan. The motorized rifle division from Termez is still deployed in and around Kabul and elements of the motorized rifle division from Kushka were observed in yesterday’s [less than 1 line not declassified] of Shindand Airfield, south of Herat.
On Monday, a motorized rifle division located in the Central Asian Military District was in the early stages of preparations for leaving its garrisons.2 This division is normally in a high degree of readiness and could be preparing for deployment to the Afghan border. The motorized rifle division at Kizyl-Arvat that began vacating its garrison on Friday is now probably at Kushka.
[1 line not declassified] yesterday showed Soviet tactical fighter aircraft at two Afghan airfields; a MIG–21 Fishbed squadron was at Bagram and two SU–17 Fitter squadrons were at Shindand.
Meanwhile, about 25 Long Range Aviation TU–16 Badger medium bombers may have flown from the western USSR to Mary Northeast Airfield last Friday, bringing to at least five the number of regiments that have sent aircraft to the Turkestan Military District since early December. A bomber deployment of this magnitude to the southern USSR is unusual and appears related to developments in Afghanistan.
Occupation forces
The government and the Soviets are clearly concerned about the loyalty of Afghanistan’s armed forces.
Soviet forces have apparently completely disarmed Afghan soldiers in Kabul, and some Afghan political officers stationed at Bagram Airbase have been ordered arrested.
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The Soviets have sustained some additional casualties in clashes with Afghan Army forces. Over the weekend, Soviet helicopters evacuated wounded from Shindand back to the USSR.
Some anti-Soviet incidents have also occurred among the civilian population. On Monday, large groups of armed residents burned shops in Qandahar and demonstrated against the government. The Afghan commander there used tanks to disperse the crowds.
Sporadic fighting between the insurgents and the Afghan Army has continued throughout the country, with the rebels exerting heavy pressure on government forces in the northeast and initiating new fighting in the southwest. Soviet forces may have conducted some clearing operations north of Kabul on Monday, but contact between the Soviets and the rebels has apparently been limited.
Foreign commentary
The new Afghan Government has been trying to justify the Soviet intervention by echoing Moscow’s charges of US interference in Afghan internal affairs.
Moscow, for its part, has been saying that US offers of military assistance to Pakistan demonstrate Washington’s intention to continue supporting Afghan insurgents, but it has issued no additional authoritative statements.
Conservative Persian Gulf states, with Saudi Arabia in the lead, have issued strong condemnations of the Soviet action. Several states have underscored their sympathy for the Afghan insurgents as fellow Muslims.
Although Iraq has not issued any formal response, Baghdad is clearly uneasy over the latest Soviet use of force. One senior Baath official compared the Soviet action to US involvement in Vietnam and said that ultimately Afghan resistance would lead the USSR to withdraw. Baghdad’s reaction, however, is likely to be colored by its deep suspicion of US intentions in the region and its preoccupation with its deteriorating relations with Iran.
Reactions elsewhere in the Middle East have been along generally predictable lines. Syria, Lebanon, and the PLO have not commented, while Egypt and other moderate states have denounced the Soviets.
China on 30 December issued a government statement—used only infrequently by Beijing—that called the Soviet action a threat to “peace and security in Asia and throughout the world,” and a Vice Foreign Minister told the Soviet Ambassador that the intervention posed “a [Page 355] threat to China’s security.”3 The Chinese are probably most concerned about the effect the Soviet action will have on Pakistan, China’s ally.
India’s acting Prime Minister has expressed “deep concern” about the situation in Kabul but has also voiced “grave concern” over possible new US arms deliveries to Pakistan.4 Indira Gandhi, a leading candidate to become prime minister again following elections this week, was even less critical of the Soviets. More authoritative statements can be expected from New Delhi once a new government is installed.
- Source: Central Intelligence Agency, Office of the Director of Central Intelligence, Job 81B00401R: Subject Files of the Presidential Briefing Coordinator for DCI (1977–81), Box 8, Afghanistan Crisis—January 1980, PDBs. Top Secret; For the President Only. The full version of this President’s Daily Brief was not filed with this collection. The article printed here was found in this form.↩
- Monday was December 31, 1979.↩
- The full text of the Chinese statement was relayed in telegram 9483 from Beijing, December 31, 1979. (National Archives, RG 59, Central Foreign Policy File, D800003–1280)↩
- In telegram 23828 from New Delhi, December 31, 1979, the Embassy reported on Indian Prime Minister Charan Singh’s meeting with the Soviet Ambassador, December 31, during which Singh asked that the Soviet Union withdraw its troops from Afghanistan. In telegram 55 to New Delhi, January 1, 1980, the Department stated that during a meeting with Coon in Washington, the Chargé of the Indian Embassy delivered an official Indian statement registering India’s grave concern over the U.S. decision to lift its arms embargo against Pakistan. (National Archives, RG 59, Central Foreign Policy File, D800004–0492 and D800004–0945, respectively)↩