105. Situation Report Prepared in the Department of Defense1
Afghanistan: Situation Report (U)
(S/[handling restriction not declassified]) Although sporadic shooting continued on 28 December, Kabul is generally quiet following yesterday’s violent overthrow of the Amin government by Soviet combat troops and Afghan allies. The city is securely in the hands of Soviet forces and armed civilians associated with the new regime of Babrak Karmal, a longtime pro-Soviet extreme Marxist. The government has wasted no time in projecting a moderate image in public statements. [Page 296] Although limited Soviet flight activity occurred late on 27 December, no significant change in Soviet military forces in Afghanistan has been reported.
(S/[handling restriction not declassified]) Soviet troops and airborne combat vehicles in company with armed civilians remain on guard at key intersections and buildings in Kabul. Additionally, four MIG–21/Fishbeds have been oberved repeatedly overflying the city in a show of force. This is the first air involvement during the past two days. Civilian traffic is light but moving freely in the city.
(S/[handling restriction not declassified]) Within hours of the Soviet takeover of the Radio Afghanistan building, the radio broadcast Amin’s overthrow and replacement by Babrak Karmal. It subsequently announced Amin’s conviction by a revolutionary tribunal of crimes against the Afghan people and his execution as a “fascist” and “agent of U.S. imperialism.” Consistent with the excellent planning and execution of the coup, Babrak has hastened to announce a new government and a series of conciliatory statements projecting a moderate image and announcing yet another “new phase” of the revolution. Military officers dominate the new government lineup and include the three military Cabinet members purged by Amin in his September takeover of government. Several have been promoted to colonel and general ranks. Other military members are victims of past purges under the Amin and Taraki governments and are considered popular with the armed forces. All the members identified so far are leftists of varying persuasions.
(C) Among the other statements issued by the government are promises to release all political prisoners, to negotiate solutions to the tribal insurgency, to bring offenders of the past regime to justice, and an appeal for assistance to the USSR, which was almost immediately accepted. Its foreign policy is announced as nonaligned, but with an obvious tilt toward more radical international issues.
(S/[handling restriction not declassified]) Although the coup represents a Soviet-inspired attempt to broaden the base of the government so as to nurture a return to stability, the government faces severe obstacles already. Babrak’s past reputation as an extreme Marxist, his installation by Soviet troops and ready identification with the USSR are likely to reinforce rather than allay opposition to the Marxist government and the now expanded Soviet presence. Despite the obvious bid for military allegiance, reports of Soviets killing or capturing Afghan troops in the fighting may yet stir military dissidence or opposition, especially in the countryside. A series of purges and arrests with mass rotations of military commanders will be a high priority of the new government. Overall the survival of Babrak’s government will hinge indefinitely on the presence of Soviet Military forces, which alone will reinforce his image as a Soviet puppet.
- Source: Department of Defense, Afghan War Collection, Box 7, DINS & PROD, Aug–Dec 79. Secret; [handling restriction not declassified; text not declassified]. A note indicates the report was “as of 0721 EST, 28 Dec 79.” Prepared by [1 line not declassified].↩