28. Memorandum From Gary Sick of the National Security Council Staff to the President’s Assistant for National Security Affairs (Brzezinski)1

SUBJECT

  • Iran Breakdown?

In our own decision-making on Iran, we should try to keep in mind what the world must look like in Tehran. They have just thrown out a government without having any qualified people to replace it; there is a full-scale struggle for power among the many factions around [Page 63] Khomeini; ministries are ill staffed and demoralized; a small war is going on with the Kurds, and the Kurds are not losing; an angry mob of unemployed workers yesterday attacked the Ministry of Labor to demand action on jobs; today there is a report that Iraqi helos penetrated Iranian airspace and drew AA fire—all this and many other problems while they are engaged in a test of will with a superpower.

Besides observing that it could not happen to a nicer bunch of guys, we also need to be alert to the signs of total systemic breakdown. Khomeini has gathered all power to himself and the Revolutionary Council, but he is an old man, with no experience in government, and a “staff” composed of squabbling clerics.

The risk of serious mistakes, miscalculations, or irrational acts of sheer frustration is very high. There may not be much we can do about it, but we should not assume we are working with an opponent who is capable of exercising real judgment.

  1. Source: Carter Library, National Security Affairs, Staff Material, Middle East File, Box 142, Chron File, Sick 11/1/79–11/15/79. Secret.