Foreign Relations of the United States, 1977–1980, Volume IV, National Security Policy

39. Memorandum From Secretary of Defense Brown to the President’s Assistant for National Security Affairs (Brzezinski)¹

Washington, November 3, 1977

SUBJECT

• PD/NSC–18 Follow-On Studies (U)

In response to your Directive of 24 August 1977: Follow-On Studies for PD/NSC–18,² I have initiated five DOD studies:

The first is a Targeting Study which will analyze (1) the relationships between targeting (i.e., employment policy as distinct from perceived force characteristics) and deterrence; (2) plausible alternative approaches and criteria for targeting; and (3) the effects and limitations imposed by force capabilities and target characteristics. We are currently drafting a preliminary Concept Paper outlining the scope of issues to be addressed, and will pass you a copy.

The second is an ICBM Modernization Study which will seek to answer three critical questions: (1) what is the contribution of the ICBM to our strategic force posture in terms of deterrence, hedging, and warfighting; (2) what are the costs and effectiveness of alternatives for maintaining an ICBM force that will survive to be used; and (3) what are the potential uses of hard target damage capability and how does having this capability affect deterrence, crisis stability, and warfighting? We plan to complete this study by mid-January.

The third is a Secure Reserve Force Target Acquisition Study. With the Intelligence Community staff, we will begin with a review of the current capabilities of the SRF for target acquisition under different employment strategies. Then, once we have concluded the Targeting Study, we will assess the means to insure that the target acquisition capability will be available for any potential changes in US nuclear employment policy for the strategic reserve force.

The fourth is a Sustainability Study. We have completed a TOR³ for the study and are about to begin Phase 1: the accumulation of data to establish baseline estimates of (1) Soviet and Warsaw Pact, and North Korea sustaining capability; (2) US sustaining capability worldwide; (3) Allied sustaining capability; (4) interchangeability and availability of US/NATO and US/South Korean stocks; and (5) US/NATO/and other Allies capacity for industrial and manpower mobilization. This will be a massive task. We will try to complete it by 1 June 1978.

The fifth study is of Naval Strategic Planning. A special task force under the direction of the Secretary of the Navy has been working for over two months. They have defined the “Policy Tasks” of the Navy and will be looking at alternative force postures by region, the Pacific, Mediterranean, Atlantic, etc. The study should be completed by March 1978.

While the studies are just underway, I think we have spent the past weeks usefully defining the issues each study will address. The critical questions which these studies raise will have my highest priority over the next year.

Harold Brown

1. Source: Carter Library, National Security Affairs, Staff Material, Defense/Security, Huntington, Box 57, PRM–10: (PD–18). Secret.
2. See Document 32.
3. The Terms of Reference were not found.