313. Memorandum From the President’s Assistant for National Security Affairs (Scowcroft) to President Ford1
SUBJECT
- Cuba Suffers Some Reverses
While the Cuban adventure in Angola has met with initial success and Castro’s prestige in much of the third world has increased, this has not been accomplished without some cost.
Prior to September 1975, the Cubans had made great progress in gaining acceptance in Latin America and Europe. They had been reintegrated into the Latin American caucus of the UN; they had established good working relations with nations of the Western world; their trade with the West and access to its technology, markets, and even credits, had grown (Since 1973 their trade with non-Communist countries had [Page 840] tripled). They had even taken some steps toward relaxing tensions with us.
There is evidence that some of this progress, however, is beginning to unravel and that Cuba is slipping back into the position of confrontation and total dependence upon the Soviet Union from which it presumably had hoped to escape. The accumulation of evidence is interesting.
I. Cuban Setbacks
1. Cancellation of the Latin American Chiefs of State (Amphictionic) Conference in Panama scheduled for June.
2. Iranian breakoff of relations.
3. Cancellation of Castro visit to Mexico.
4. Cancellation of Vice Premier Carlos Rafael Rodriguez’s visit to Panama.
5. Norwegian decision against further new assistance to Cuba after 1977.
6. Japanese agreement to refuse to purchase Cuban nickel.
7. Venezuelan cancellation of negotiations with Cuba for commercial flights and oil supply.
8. Announcement by Honduras that it would not reestablish diplomatic relations with Cuba because of the Angola intervention.
9. Deterioration in relations with the PRC.
10. Two Cuban defectors to Portugal.
II. Hemispheric Leaders Who Have Recently Criticized Cuban Intervention or General Intervention in the Cuban Context
President Banzer of Bolivia
President Bordaberry of Uruguay
Secretary General Orfila of the OAS
President Perez of Venezuela
President Echeverria of Mexico
President Somoza (including charges of Cuban subversion in Nicaragua)
President Oduber and Foreign Minister Facio of Costa Rica
Prime Minister Trudeau of Canada
President Lopez of Colombia
President Pinochet of Chile
Prime Minister Williams of Trinidad and Tobago stated that the people of the Caribbean should stay out of Africa.
While the above actions and commentaries can be considered minor when compared to the increased prestige which Castro derives [Page 841] from the success of his operation, over the long term the costs of the Angolan venture may begin to be felt and to stimulate domestic criticism in Cuba where there was support for the pre-September policies seeking accommodation with the Western world.
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Summary: This memorandum reported on signs that Cuban involvement in Angola was hindering Cuban efforts to gain acceptance in Europe and Latin America and forcing Castro back into a position of dependence upon the Soviet Union.
Source: Ford Library, National Security Adviser, Presidential Country Files for Latin America, 1974–1977, Country Files, Box 3, Cuba 5. Confidential. Sent for information. Ford initialed the memorandum, and a notation reads: “The President has seen.” In an April 13 memorandum, Low presented this information and analysis to Scowcroft, who instructed Low to prepare a memorandum to Ford on the subject. (Ibid.)
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