Foreign Relations of the United States, 1969–1976, Volume XL, Germany and Berlin, 1969–1972

385. Backchannel Message from Helmut Sonnenfeldt of the National Security Council Staff to the President’s Assistant for National Security Affairs (Kissinger)¹

Washington, November 20, 1972, 0146Z.

TOHAK 9. Deliver to Winston Lord for Dr. Kissinger at Opening of Business.

Following is State Department’s preliminary analysis of the West German elections (edited slightly).²

The Brandt government has emerged from the November 19 elections with some 48 more seats in the Bundestag than the opposition CDU/CSU and with an absolute majority for the coalition of more than 20 Bundestag votes. This will enable Brandt to form a stable government with his FDP coalition partner, which he and Walter Scheel will quickly do. The election outcome constitutes a personal triumph for Brandt and a popular mandate for him to continue his foreign policy both in the East and in the West. It also indicates that a majority of the German public is confident that Brandt will, if given time, be able to deal successfully with domestic issues of inflation and social reform.

The following conclusions emerge from the election outcome:

• —The SPD, under Brandt’s leadership, has for the first time become the largest political party in the FRG. It is thus clear that the German population now view both major parties as competent to govern but, by giving more than 8 percent to the small FDP, have also shown a desire to maintain a third party as a guarantee against excessive orientation toward the right or the left on the part of the CDU or SPD.
• —Extreme parties of the right and left were practically eliminated in the election. This is complemented by the extraordinary voter participation of 90 percent of the eligible voters despite bad weather in many areas. It is evident from this record how closely the West German population feels involved in the free political system which has been developed in the Federal Republic in the postwar period.
• —While the CDU has suffered a major defeat it still retains the support of some 45 percent of the population. Its future as a viable party is not in doubt. There will unquestionably be wide ranging changes in leadership, however, and Barzel may find it difficult to retain his hold on the top.³

The first steps of the new Brandt government to gain major public attention are likely again to be in the field of Eastern policy. The Chancellor will sign the general relations treaty with the GDR in East Berlin before Christmas.⁴ This will be accompanied by the full-scale emergence of the GDR on the international scene. The FRG will involve itself deeply in the CSCE and MBFR talks which it will view as an extension of the Brandt Eastern policy. (On MBFR in particular, this may produce some problems for us. A memorandum will be sent separately on this.)⁵

Brandt will continue to place major importance on his bilateral relations with the United States and on enhancing the cohesion and stability both of the European Community and the Atlantic Alliance. The governmental stability which the election outcome has assured is bound to give the FRG an even stronger voice in these organizations and we can expect the German Government to speak and act with increased self-confidence. This should serve the ultimate interests of the United States since an essential requirement for a peaceful structure in Europe is the existence of a stable and responsible government in Bonn.

1. Source: National Archives, Nixon Presidential Materials, NSC Files, Kissinger Office Files, Box 26, HAK Trip Files, HAK Paris Trip, TOHAK [2 of 2]. Confidential. Kissinger was in Paris for private discussions with Le Duc Tho to negotiate a settlement of the Vietnam War. A memorandum from Kissinger, briefly summarizing Sonnenfeldt’s message, was forwarded to the President on November 20. (Ibid., NSC Files, Box 47, President’s Daily Brief, November 17–30, 1972)
2. The “preliminary analysis” by the Department of State has not been found.
3. Barzel resigned as chairman of the CDU/CSU parliamentary party group on May 9, 1973; one week later, he also renounced his candidacy to remain CDU chairman.
4. Bahr and Kohl signed the Basic Treaty in East Berlin on December 21; due to difficulties in fixing a date, Brandt and East German Prime Minister Stoph did not attend the ceremony.
5. Not found.