Foreign Relations of the United States, 1969–1976, Volume XXIII, Arab-Israeli Dispute, 1969–1972

108. National Security Study Memorandum 93¹

Washington, April 13, 1970.

TO

• The Secretary of State
• The Secretary of Defense
• The Director of Central Intelligence

SUBJECT

• The Arab-Israeli Military Balance

The President has directed that, as a follow-up to the study produced in response to NSSM 81² and in the light of recent exchanges with Israeli intelligence representatives,³ further studies be prepared which will provide the following:

—Present intelligence estimates of Israeli and Arab air order of battle. The study should (1) identify U.S. and Israeli estimates and (2) where there are significant differences explain the reasons for the differences as specifically as possible.

—Present detailed intelligence assessments of the principal indicators of Arab air capability. The study should (1) identify U.S. and Israeli assessments and (2) where there are significant differences explain the reasons for the differences insofar as possible.

—An assessment of the present effective Arab-Israeli military balance. This study should present a refinement of the analysis in the NSSM 81 paper in the light of any revision in estimates of quantitative and qualitative factors and in the light of any improvement in analytical technique.

The NSC Ad Hoc Group created by NSSM 81 will be reactivated for the purpose of assembling this study.⁴ The study will be submitted by May 15 to the President’s Assistant for National Security Affairs for reference to the Special Review Group.⁵

Henry A. Kissinger

1. Source: National Archives, Nixon Presidential Materials, NSC Files, NSC Institutional Files (H-Files), Box H–171, National Security Study Memoranda. Secret; Sensitive. A copy was sent to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
2. NSSM 81 is Document 63. For a summary of the study, see Document 93.
3. Led by Major General Aaharon Yariv, Israeli intelligence officials met with U.S. officials between April 5 and 9, including sessions with Sisco and Saunders, to present Israel’s case for further shipments of U.S. aircraft based, in part, on the participation of Soviet pilots in operational flights in Egypt. (Memorandum from Saunders to Kissinger, April 6; National Archives, Nixon Presidential Materials, NSC Files, Box 606, Country Files, Middle East, Israel, Vol. IV, and memorandum from Saunders to Kissinger, April 9; ibid., NSC Institutional Files (H-Files), Box H–171, National Security Study Memoranda) Regarding the new level of Soviet military involvement in the United Arab Republic, Meir wrote to Nixon on April 7: “It is inevitable that these developments will before long become public knowledge. I am convinced, however, that an extremely grave situation would arise if the publication of this new phase in Soviet involvement were not followed urgently and immediately by a clear and vigorous American public reaction on the highest level of authority.” (Ibid., Box 1155, Saunders Files, Middle East Negotiations Files)
4. See Document 112 and footnote 2 thereto.
5. The Ad Hoc Special Review Group met on May 21 and May 28, the minutes of which are printed as Documents 117 and 119.