221. Information Memorandum From the Assistant Secretary of State for Inter-American Affairs (Oliver) to Secretary of State Rusk1
SUBJECT
- Dominican Government Believed Facing No Serious Threat
A recent upsurge of rumors has resulted in some heightening of political tensions in the Dominican Republic. A meeting in Spain between former President Bosch and a commission from his opposition PRD, President Balaguerʼs announcement that ex-General Wessin may return early in 1969, and the continued uncertainty regarding the whereabouts of Constitutionalist leader Caamano, have contributed to the more uncertain atmosphere. However, we believe that President Balaguer has maintained his relatively strong position and that his constitutional government will not face a direct and immediate threat to its survival in the short term.
We also conclude that Balaguer will be capable of sustaining his position through June 1969, but probably with some creeping loss of authority and capacity to govern effectively. The President may find it necessary to announce his decision on reelection before the end of this period. (National elections are scheduled for May 1970.) Should he decide to seek reelection, the fragility of the political situation would increase. However, we estimate that, with anticipated continuing military support, he would still be able to maintain himself in power.
- Source: National Archives and Records Administration, RG 59, Central Files 1967–69, POL 15 DOM John J. Youle on December 17 and cleared by Long.↩