198. Memorandum From William G. Bowdler of the National Security Council Staff to the Presidentʼs Special Assistant (Rostow)1

SUBJECT

  • Political Situation in the DR

John Crimmins reports that the attempted assassination of Tony Imbert on March 21 has produced a new, and perhaps the most fluid, politico-military situation since Balaguer took office.2

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Balaguer has handled the situation well so far, and it does not threaten his hold on the armed forces or the government. But it has touched off efforts at political realignment by anti-Balaguer forces which need close watching.

The new situation has these elements:

1.
The attack against Imbert came at a time of growing public apprehension over increased “Trujillista” influence in the Balaguer government.
2.
Deeply concerned over the assassination attempt and the Trujillista charges which the attack reinforced, Balaguer made Amiama Tio—the only other survivor of the Trujillo assassination team—Interior Minister to carry out an investigation of the Imbert attack.
3.
Amiama is pushing the investigation hard but he is also using his position to press Balaguer to rid himself of elements which he regards as Trujillista. It is not clear how far Amiama intends to pursue the second course.
4.
Amiama has used PRD support in this jockeying. The PRD, in turn, is trying to use him to establish a broad political front against Balaguer under an “anti-Trujillista” banner.
5.
A series of factors—(1) the investigation which points to the Trujillista military stronghold at the San Isidro Air Base as the focus of the anti-Imbert plot, (2) Defense Minister Perezʼs cooperation with Amiama in pressing the investigation against military elements, and (3) Amiamaʼs success in forcing Balaguer to make some important changes in the Police and his Military Household—have made the military a little edgy for the first time since the inauguration.
6.
The key to the situation is Amiamaʼs intentions and objectives. If he sticks to solving the Imbert attack, so much the better. If he continues to press Balaguer for a house-cleaning of what he regards as Trujillista elements and, in the process, uses forces antagonistic to Balaguer as pressure, there could be problems.

WGB
  1. Source: Johnson Library, National Security File, Country File, Dominican Republic, Vol. XVII. Secret.
  2. Reference is to telegram 3115 from Santo Domingo, April 11. (National Archives and Records Administration, RG 59, Central Files 1967–69, POL 23–8 DOM REP)