175. Memorandum From the Presidentʼs Special Assistant (Rostow) to President Johnson1

[less than 1 line of source text not declassified] has supplied us with the first partial results of the Dominican Republic poll. It covers a sample of 600 out of the 1,000 planned.2

The sample includes the whole of the DR except the towns of Santiago and Santo Domingo; that is, it covers 60% of the potential voting population.

The comparison with the March poll follows:

March 1966 May 1966
Balaguer 54.8 46.1
Bosch 19.2 34.8
Bonnelly 3.0 5.2
Other 1.4
Undecided 21.6 13.9

To the question: Whom do you expect to win?, the answer was:

  • Bosch—36.4
  • Balaguer—31.7
  • Bonnelly—1.5
  • Donʼt know—30.4

[less than 1 line of source text not declassified] comments as follows:

a.
Balaguer should do well in Santiago; but he is weak in Santo Domingo.
b.
In general, it looks like a horse race.
c.
He is mildly encouraged by the fact that the differences between voter preferences and voter estimate of who will win does not indicate a landslide mentality.

I underlined again that nothing should be spared which will not be counterproductive to get out the rural vote.

Walt
  1. Source: Johnson Library, National Security File, Intelligence File, Dominican Republic Elections—1966. Top Secret; Eyes Only; Sensitive. An “L” on the memorandum indicates the President saw it.
  2. In a May 11 memorandum to the President, Rostow summarized the “unweighted full” Dominican Republic poll results as follows: “Balaguer 43%, Bosch 37%, Bonnelly 4%, and Undecided 16%.” (Ibid.)