166. Memorandum From the Representative to the Organization of American States (Bunker) to President Johnson1
SUBJECT
- Current Situation in the Dominican Republic
A number of factors have contributed to a gradual but steady improvement in the situation since the date of my last report, March 7.2 I believe that the grounds for cautious optimism with respect to the chances of holding elections on June 1 which I then expressed have been further strengthened.
Acts of terrorism and violence have markedly declined. The new Minister of the Armed Forces and the Chief of the National Police have [Page 383] made it clear, through their public pronouncements and their actions, that they are determined that their respective Services shall maintain an attitude of strict impartiality and discipline throughout the electoral period, that they shall remain aloof from political activities of any kind, and shall be responsive to civil authority. Changes in local commands have been made where there has been evidence of lack of adequate cooperation. The National Police have initiated and continue a search for weapons in the hands of civilians and almost daily report recoveries of weapons and ammunition. I believe that, barring some now unforeseen acts of violence by the extremes of either Left or Right, the atmosphere of tranquility which now prevails can be maintained.
There is growing evidence that the people as a whole not only want to see elections take place on June 1 but have become increasingly convinced the elections will be held. Despite doubts expressed by Bosch a short time ago that the climate in the city of Santo Domingo was sufficiently tranquil to enable his Party (PRD) to hold its convention,3 he announced on March 18 that the Party convention would be held in Santo Domingo on April 9–10 and would then determine whether or not to participate in the elections. It is my opinion that pressure building up within the PRD will lead to a decision to participate in the elections with or without Bosch as a presidential candidate. I believe that it is important that it should do so in order to make the elections meaningful and acceptable to the largest possible number of Dominicans. Another Party, the PRSC (Social Christian Revolutionary Party) has also announced that it intends to participate in the elections and will hold its convention on April 3 to decide on its candidates.
A further development which has contributed to stability and tranquility is the departure of a substantial number of ex-constitutionalist military either to posts or training abroad. By the end of this week all of the high-ranking ex-constitutionalist officers with the exception of the Camp Commander will have left the 27th of February Camp for posts abroad. Garcia Godoy hopes to be able to close out the Camp, the personnel of which now consists almost entirely of enlisted men and non-commissioned officers, by offering the remaining personnel pay with leave of absence until the elected government takes office, and seems confident that the offer will be accepted.
Within a generally more optimistic frame for the country as a whole, the University remains a matter for concern, the new Rector and Administration having confirmed a substantial number of extreme leftist professors. Because of the University autonomy, established both by law and generally by tradition in Latin America, the problem of correcting [Page 384] the situation will be a difficult one for the incoming Administration. It is possible, however, that since a new Constitution must be written after the elected government takes over, the problem can be coped with at that time.
If the present climate prevails and we get to elections on schedule, I continue to estimate that Balaguerʼs chances are good. He remains, I believe, more than ever the candidate of the center where most of the votes are probably to be found. While Bonnelly will take votes away from him on the right, the PRSC, if it runs an independent ticket as now seems probable, should detract from the votes of Boschʼs party (PRD). The 14th of June Movement, declared illegal in December, 1963, has petitioned the Central Electoral Board for recognition as a political party. The Board has declared a decision outside its competence and has referred the matter to the President.
In view of the favorable electoral climate created by the situation described above, I believe that we must continue our intensive efforts to bring off the elections on schedule. Toward this objective, members of the OAS Electoral Commission are already in the Dominican Republic, OAS observers who will witness the voting process are being recruited and, at the invitation of Garcia Godoy, we are cooperating in the preparation and dissemination of publicity directed toward getting out the largest possible vote.
As mentioned in my previous memorandum, I believe that our interests will best be served by the earliest possible withdrawal of the Inter-American Peace Force. Depending on the outcome of the elections, it may be possible to withdraw the IAPF before the elected government is installed. If this is not possible, we should look toward its withdrawal as soon as possible following the installation of the elected government.
- Source: Johnson Library, National Security File, Country File, Dominican Republic, Vol. XIV, 1/66–4/66. Confidential.↩
- Bunker originally dated his memorandum March 7. (National Archives and Records Administration, RG 59, S/S Country Files: Lot 70 D 209, Dominican Republic) An identical copy that went to the President was dated March 9; see Document 162.↩
- See Document 164.↩