363. Information Memorandum From the Assistant Secretary of State for Inter-American Affairs (Oliver) to Secretary of State Rusk 1

SUBJECT

  • Mexico—Prospects following Occupation of the National University

The Mexican Government, in occupying the National University, has now committed itself to coercion as its method of ending the two-month long student disorders. The next week should reveal whether or not the majority of students have the will to continue their opposition in the face of the Government’s declared policy.

At this point, we see the following as likely developments flowing from the GOM decision:

1.
The GOM will continue to take a hard line against the students and will occupy other educational facilities as necessary.
2.
The Olympic Games will be held, although marred by sporadic violence.
3.
Students are not likely to attract significant support from other important sectors and will not threaten the stability of the Government in the short run.
4.
The prestige of Diaz Ordaz’ regime has been damaged both because of its initial vacillation in handling the students and because of its violation of university autonomy.

  1. Source: National Archives and Records Administration, RG 59, Central Files 1967–69, POL 23–8 MEX. Confidential. Drafted by Michael Yohn and Maxwell Chaplin. A notation on the memorandum indicates that Rusk saw it.