Foreign Relations of the United States, 1964–1968, Volume XXX, China

279. Memorandum From William J. Jorden of the National Security Council Staff to President Johnson¹

Washington, August 24, 1967, 6:30 p.m.

SUBJECT

• Will China Go Back to Warlordism?

There has been much speculation that the current chaos in China will result in the collapse of central authority and the rebirth of regional warlords. Attached is a cable from Ed Rice, our Consul General in Hong Kong, on this possibility.² Briefly, Rice believes that the current disorders have already put regional military commanders under pressure to behave in a more autonomous way. However, he does not expect the relapse of the country into the warlord system of the 1920’s because:

• —The regional military commanders are not, generally speaking, local figures, but men with a strong sense of the army as a national institution.
• —China’s modern military is dependent for its existence on the national industrial sector, and the continued flow of material requires each regional commander to recognize interdependence with other regions.

In short, the regional army commanders are not potential warlords, and warlordism is not likely unless the army dissolves into the general chaos.

Bill

1. Source: Johnson Library, National Security File, Country File, China, Vol. X. Secret.
2. The attachment, August 24, is a paraphrase of telegram 1126 from Hong Kong. Telegram 1126, August 23, is ibid. and in Department of State, Central Files, POL CHICOM.