176. Memorandum From the President’s Special Assistant (Rostow) to President Johnson1

Mr. President.

This Hong Kong analysis of the ChiCom political scene is a bit long-winded, but worth reading given the importance of the subject.2

In brief:

1.
Mao has chosen Lin Piao as his successor.
2.
Together they are determined to set up a power structure, via the Army, which will override the moderate opposition in the Party and the bureaucracy, as well as in intellectual life.
3.
It is not certain that Lin Piao will be able to consolidate his position as Mao’s successor.
4.
If he does consolidate his position, he’s bad news.

Walt
  1. Source: Johnson Library, National Security File, Country File, China, Vol. VII. No classification marking. A handwritten “L” on the source text indicates that it was seen by the President.
  2. A typed copy of telegram 1392 from Hong Kong, August 30, is attached but not printed. (Department of State, Central Files, POL 15–1 CHICOM)