Office of the Historian

171. Memorandum From the President’s Special Assistant (Rostow) to President Johnson1

Washington, July 25, 1966.

The underlying memorandum2 summarizes the current situation in Communist China following the eight months of turmoil and confusion. The major conclusions are:

1.
Mao is now in effective control of the Chinese Communist Party and of the policies of the Peking regime.
2.
The long standing stability of the Chinese leadership has been shaken.
3.
The chance of a peaceful and orderly succession to the aging Mao appears greatly lessened.
4.
Support for the regime will weaken further as Peking tries to substitute exhortation for material incentives.
5.
Effective political leadership or economic management will be difficult in the present atmosphere of confusion and apprehension.
6.
Most observers agree that the radical turn taken in internal affairs will not spread to foreign policy.
7.
The internal crisis serves to reduce the chance of Chinese intervention in Vietnam.
8.
It highly unlikely that Peking will soften its anti-Soviet line.

Walt
  1. Source: Johnson Library, National Security File, Country File, China, Vol. VI. Secret. Filed with a covering memorandum of July 25 from Rostow to the President.↩
  2. The memorandum from the Office of National Estimates of the Central Intelligence Agency to the Director of Central Intelligence, July 15, on the subject “The Crisis in China,” is attached but not printed.↩