228. Telegram From the Embassy in Laos to the Department of State1
1054. 1. If I were to choose any one word to characterize the situation in this country on the eve of Lao new year, I would suggest the word “fatigue.”
2. The Prime Minister is tired, the members of his government are tired, the Royal Army is tired, the Neutralists are tired,2 and (according to our information) the Pathet Lao are tired. This condition is partly the result of the current enervating and oppressive heat which precedes the rains and partly because we had no winter to speak of this year. But, primarily, it is because of the long, exhausting conflict which has been the fate of Laos for the past ten years.
[Page 453]3. The Prime Minister took off for Tokyo this morning to attend the conference on Southeast Asian development. Before his departure, I had our Embassy doctor give him a couple of vitamin injections to perk him up a bit. However, he won’t gain much zest unless he can get a little relaxation on his visit to Japan. He has agreed to take a few days’ rest, and I have attempted to persuade Japanese Ambassador (who will be accompanying him) to be sure he is not overwhelmed with hospitality.
4. The Royal Army is going to have to hang on in its current dispositions until the rains come. Then, there are plans to rotate units out of the front lines, give them some R and R, and to re-form and re-equip them, before sending them back into action.
5. As for the Neutralists, this is a sticky question. They see no future for themselves, yet they do not wish to merge their identity with the FAR and certainly have no intention to defect to the Communists. The enemy is quite aware of the demoralization among the Neutralists and Radio Peking is already crowing about it. The Neutralists are currently (and for this reason) the prime focus of Viet attacks in Laos. Their fate is quite definitely in the balance.
6. The Pathet Lao, as a fighting force, were just about washed up a few months ago. They have been revived by the introduction of additional new Vietnamese cadre and fighting units. How long this new injection of energy will last is anyone’s guess, but it is doubtful that it will really survive the rainy season.
7. The sixty-four dollar question, in all this evaluation, is the state of affairs among the North Vietnamese. Starting from the assumption that they are human, we can only suspect that they, too, are feeling the strain. Captured prisoners, recovered diaries, and other evidence bear out this supposition. But the nature of their continued thrust, the vigor of their new invasion give us small comfort that we are anywhere near in sight of a collapse.
8. We must, however, take some notice of the fact that, as a whole, the human fabric of this constant conflict is beginning to fray. Nothing is immediately critical. But it is all beginning to wear just a bit thin.
9. Given these circumstances, it is difficult to predict reactions to any particular situation. The best we can do is to lay in more vitamins, look lively and pray for rain.
- Source: Department of State, Central Files, POL 2 LAOS. Confidential. Repeated to Bangkok, Saigon, Tokyo, London, Moscow, Hong Kong, and CINCPAC.↩
- In telegram 1039 from Vientiane, March 31, the Embassy reported that Neutralist morale was continuing “to plummet.” Infantry Battalion Eight near Phou Kout abandoned its positions and asked to be airlifted to its headquarters. Kong Le refused to intervene in the affair. (Ibid., POL 27 LAOS)↩