376. Research Memorandum From the Director of Intelligence and Research (Hughes) to Secretary of State Rusk1
SUBJECT
- The Thai Political Scene Comes to Life
In anticipation of the promulgation of a new constitution and subsequent national elections, the Thai political scene has begun to come alive after ten years of inactivity. This paper examines the governmentʼs efforts to establish a political party as well as the emerging opposition groupings.
Abstract
After ten years of political inactivity in Thailand, it now appears likely that the government will promulgate a new constitution some [Page 835] time this year and that national elections will be held within eight months of the promulgation. Since Marshal Saritʼs coup in 1958, the ruling group has appeared extremely reluctant to institute its promised return to parliamentary government, but considerations of Thailandʼs international reputation and possibly the urging of King Phumipon have evidently now convinced the government of the desirability of some movement. To insure political stability and the continued control of the present government, the new constitution provides for a strong executive which is completely separate from a weak legislature. The government has also been attempting to organize its own party to compete in the national elections.
For some time after this effort began in 1964, it seemed clear that the widely respected civilian Minister of National Development, Pote Sarasin, had been chosen to organize the government party. More recently, however, there have been indications that Poteʼs effort was not going well. Subsequently it has become clear that the Director of Local Administration, Chamnan Yuwabun, has been attempting independently to organize a party on behalf of Deputy Prime Minister Praphat Charusathien—much to Poteʼs displeasure. The governmentʼs organizational efforts now appear stymied by the Pote-Praphat split, but it seems likely that this split will eventually be papered over.
The emerging non-government groups are mostly cliques based largely on personal loyalties, but their ideological veneers permit them to be classified roughly as belonging to the center or the left. In the center, the strongest group appears to be that of ex-premier Khuang Aphaiwong and his followers from the former Prachatipat (Democratic) Party. This group appears to have retained considerable popularity, and the reconstituted Prachatipat Party will probably make a good showing in the elections. The other major group of the center is that led by Liang Chayakarn, a veteran Northeastern politician. It appears that Liangʼs strength is considerably less than Khuangʼs and is limited largely to the Northeast.
In the Northeast, Liang will have to share popularity with the fragmented leftist groups, whose strength appears to be limited to that area. The two strongest leftist groups appear to be those led by Thep Chotinuchit, who has attracted many former members of the Socialist United Front, a leftist coalition active in the mid-1950ʼs, and Sang Patanothai, who has the support of many followers of the late Prime Minister Phibun Songkhram. Two other groups, which also hope to participate in the elections, consist of followers of former Prime Minister Pridi Phanomyong (now in exile in Communist China) and a few ex-Communists. These last two groups appear less well organized, and there is a strong possibility that they might be barred from electioneering under the Anti-Communist Act.
[Page 836]If these groups are the principal ones to emerge once political activity is legalized, the government should have little difficulty in dominating the post-election political scene. Even if the government party should fail to gain a majority in the elections, it should be able to obtain sufficient parliamentary support from at least one of the center groups, and perhaps from the more conciliatory leftist groups, to ensure a pro-government majority in the elected house of the bicameral Parliament. Thai politics are, however, in a period of change, and many of the old political pros and cliques are probably discredited in the public eye. It seems likely, therefore, that a number of independent candidates and members of local groupings will be elected to Parliament. The way in which they subsequently coalesce into new groups or take over some of the older political factions could eventually challenge the initially pro-government balance of political power.
[Here follows the 10-page body of the paper.]
- Source: Department of State, Central Files, POL 15–5 THAI. Secret; No Foreign Dissem.↩