Foreign Relations of the United States, 1964–1968, Volume XXV, South Asia

354. National Intelligence Estimate¹

NIE 31/32–66

Washington, July 7, 1966.

THE FOREIGN POLICIES OF INDIA AND PAKISTAN

The Problem

To examine possible developments, over the next year or two, in the relations between India and Pakistan and between them and the major powers.

Conclusions

A. In view of the mutual suspicions and animosities on both sides, there is little prospect of any substantial improvement in Indo-Pakistani relations in the foreseeable future. India will remain basically unyielding on Kashmir, while Pakistan will continue to seek movement toward a solution. Pakistani pressure on this issue probably will involve some infiltration into Kashmir, but Pakistan, recognizing Indian military superiority, will be careful to avoid actions which it thinks might develop into major fighting.

B. Pakistan considers that it must improve its forces to be able to defend at least West Pakistan in any future hostilities. India is determined to be able to cope simultaneously with Pakistan and China. In the current year, both are spending substantial sums on defense—$569 million or about 5.5 percent of GNP in the case of Pakistan and $2.1 billion or four percent in the case of India—and both will continue to give defense requirements a very high priority.

C. India will remain hostile to China and will seek to remain non-aligned between the US and USSR. India has already made a number of economic reforms urged by the US, in order to get renewed economic aid. It is concerned by the Soviet Union’s gradual move away from uncritical support of India. To inhibit further movement, and to continue receiving economic and military aid, New Delhi will take pains to avoid offending the Soviets whenever possible.

D. Pakistan will continue to try to balance its relations with the US and China. It is aware that a close association with the latter would jeopardize its relationship with the US. At the same time, it needs arms, and China appears to Pakistan as the one country which is willing to provide, apparently at modest cost, the types and amounts necessary to rearm and improve Pakistan’s military posture.

E. Both India and Pakistan are aware that US provision of economic aid will be tied to performance on matters of importance to the US, such as limiting military spending and giving priority to economic development. In a general way, we believe that India will probably meet US requirements somewhat better than will Pakistan.

[Here follows the 9-page Discussion portion of the Estimate.]

1. Source: Central Intelligence Agency, Job 79–R01012A, ODDI Registry of NIE and SNIE Files. Secret; Controlled Dissem. According to a note on the cover sheet, the estimate was prepared by the Central Intelligence Agency and the intelligence organization of the Departments of State and Defense, NSA, and AEC. All members of the United States Intelligence Board concurred in the estimate on July 7 except the representative of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, who abstained because the subject was outside his jurisdiction.