245. Memorandum From the President’s Deputy Special Assistant for National Security Affairs (Komer) to the President’s Special Assistant for National Security Affairs (Bundy)1
To add to our problems we may have a major Indian food crisis on our hands. Poor rains are apparently resulting in a very bad fall/winter crop. Last year’s record production of 88 million tons was estimated earlier to be only 85 this year; new estimates are that it might be even less. Freeman’s man, Brown, now in Delhi, has sent in Delhi 12442 attached, estimating that 10–15 million tons more grain imports from all sources may be needed to sustain India’s millions to the next harvest. (I believe this figure includes our present shipments, which if continued at present rate would make up six million tons of this.)
The Baltimore Sun has been running a good series. Latest article attached.3
Am running this down and will be ready shortly to advise a course.
- Source: Johnson Library, National Security File, Name File, Komer Memos, Vol. II. Secret.↩
- Telegram 1244 from New Delhi, November 10, drew the conclusion that a poor monsoon pattern nationwide presaged a major food crisis, perhaps the most serious in recent history. (National Archives and Records Administration, RG 59, Central Files 1964–66, AGR 12 INDIA) In telegram 1248 from New Delhi, November 11, the Embassy reported that Food and Agriculture Minister Subramaniam had publicly estimated that the fall crop would be 3 million tons lower than the previous year’s harvest, but the Embassy noted that independent observers had estimated the decline as closer to 6 million tons. (Ibid.)↩
- Not found attached.↩