527. Memorandum From the President’s Deputy Special Assistant for National Security Affairs (Komer) to President Johnson1
Rhodesian Sitrep. Wilson, who is handling Rhodesia personally, seems to have bought some time by his skillful handling of the Commonwealth Conference. However, the key remains Kaunda, whom Wilson is seeing today in an attempt to get Zambia to hold off cutting its own economic lifeline until sanctions have had a chance to work. Wilson’s effort, backed by your message, should suffice for a time—though many of us are skeptical that Kaunda will sit still long enough to give Wilson’s strategy a full run.
Meanwhile, there are mildly encouraging signs that sanctions are beginning to bite in Rhodesia. We hear that the business community is hurting. State’s best experts are now coming around to the view that it’s no longer a question of whether sanctions will work but of whether Smith will cave before Kaunda or other Africans do something foolish.
If Smith caves, Wilson’s plan is to restore direct UK rule via the Governor (who is still holding the fort in Rhodesia) and devise a new plan for gradual progress toward black majority rule. There is a risk, however, that even if Smith caves soon other extremists will take over, creating a chaotic situation in which Wilson may have to fly in troops.
In sum, even we skeptics are a little more hopeful now that Wilson’s strategy may work. If so, he will have pulled our African chestnuts out of the fire along with his (although the success of economic sanctions will create an ominous precedent for the Portuguese and South African problems still down the road).
- Source: Johnson Library, National Security File, Memos to the President, McGeorge Bundy, Vol. 18. Secret. “For Information Only” is handwritten at the top of the source text, which also bears a handwritten “L,” indicating that the President saw the memorandum.↩
- McGeorge Bundy initialed below Komer’s signature.↩