36. Memorandum From John Foster and Harold H. Saunders of the National Security Council Staff to the President’s Special Assistant (Rostow)1
SUBJECT
- Situation in Algeria
You may have seen a number of reports that a military rebellion is underway in Algeria. The most recent government announcements claim that Boumedienne has completely crushed the attempted coup, but we’re not sure yet that we’ve heard the last of it. The best information we have comes from the French Embassy in Algiers (attached).2 Just [Page 62] before Boumedienne’s victory announcements, they thought the situation was still serious, but even they weren’t sure what was going on. Perhaps the most relevant indicator is that Boumedienne himself acted as if he took the threat seriously.
It will make little difference to us in the short run whether Boumedienne stays in power, or whether Col. Z’Biri—the coup leader—has more strength than it now appears he has. The rivalry grows out of an internal power struggle, basically without ideological connotations. In the longer run Z’Biri might be worse than Boumedienne since he’s even more vociferous about Israel and resents the technocrats who are trying to put Algeria on its feet.
Today’s events will increase uncertainty around the country and could, over time, lead to a breakup of the army and a situation where groups now quiet—both pro-Soviet and pro-West—could emerge. But it’s much too soon even to speculate seriously, although one expert says it “looks more and more like Syria every week.”
We have no evidence of which way Soviet preferences lie. We assume they’d like the army to stay intact under leadership they can influence (unlike Syria’s), but beyond that we don’t have any indication that today’s events can be linked to other Soviet activities in the area.
- John
- Hal