Foreign Relations of the United States, 1964–1968, Volume XXIV, Africa

351. Telegram From the Department of State to the Embassy in Ethiopia¹

Washington, July 12, 1968, 2213Z.

201631. Subject: Possible Renewed Arms Race in Horn. Ref: Addis 4680;² Mogadiscio 3620.³

1. Fully agree with para one Addis reftel re seriousness situation. Even improvement achieved so far in Somali-Kenyan relations could be endangered by Soviet deliveries of new sophisticated aircraft to Somalia. And unless Ethiopian Government soon makes up its mind on whether or not provide substantive concessions to Egal, Somali Government not likely turn down MIG-21’s which Soviets may be offering precisely to finish off detente, Egal, and latter’s pro-Western policies. Thus action addressee Chiefs of Mission requested make further efforts convince respective governments of desirability trying make progress on detente now before opportunity goes by the board.

2. Re courses of action suggested reftel, we remain of opinion only Egal, possibly with Shermarke, visit Addis for talks with Aklilou and Emperor can get Ethiopian-Somali relations off dead center and hopefully provide Egal with sufficient concessions to resist Soviet blandishments.

3. However, since Ethiopians have apparently not yet decided give such concessions, we see advantages in Shermarke and Egal proceeding with scheduled visit Nairobi. Such bilateral talks likely result in consolidating progress Somali-Kenyan relations. This in turn might conceivably encourage favorable IEG decisions re Somalia and Somalis may wish request Kenyatta urge IEG in this direction.

4. If Council of Ministers has not made up its mind, still do not see how IEG can provide needed encouragement and assurances to Somali Foreign Minister, should his Addis trip be revived, that visit by PM will bear fruit.

5. Request Ambassador Thurston discuss foregoing with Egal. In addition covering points in State 196496⁴ and Mogadiscio reftel, Ambassador should explore with latter desirability his (plus Shermarke) visiting Addis following Nairobi, preferably with advance assurances of Ethiopian forthcomingness but even without, given seriousness present situation. Would it be helpful approach Italians on this subject Mogadiscio and/or Washington?

6. Request Ambassador Ferguson discuss situation frankly with Kenyan Government on basis our concern continuing stalemate Ethiopian-Somali relations preventing forward movement on detente and weakening Egal’s political position particularly in face Somali military opposition to detente and reports of Soviet offers more military equipment. Ask if any way GOK might be able to help.

7. Request Ambassador Hall discuss with FonMin Ketema or at higher level if feasible along same lines and urge that favorable decision on proposed concessions be expedited and word to this effect be conveyed to Somali Government. Explore possibility IEG invitation to Shermarke and Egal visit Addis following their trip Nairobi in order discuss outstanding problems including danger further arms race. If useful you may state you speaking under instructions.⁵

8. Posts should repeat significant messages this subject to above addressees.

Rusk

1. Source: Department of State, Central Files, DEF 12–5 ETH. Confidential. Drafted by Looram; cleared by AFE Country Director Nicholas Feld, John G. MacCracken in EUR/SOV, and Lewis D. Junior in G/PM; and approved by AF Deputy Assistant Secretary Thomas H.E. Quimby. Also sent to Mogadiscio and Nairobi, and repeated to London, Moscow, Asmara, and CINCSTRIKE.
2. In telegram 4680 from Addis Ababa, July 10, Ambassador Hall commented that Ethiopia and Somalia were perhaps on the verge of a new arms race, which would further limit both countries’ capabilities to progress economically and end hopes for detente, and might lead to another war between them. He agreed that Ethiopia’s Canberra deal was bad, but noted that a Somalia MIG deal would make matters worse. (Ibid.)
3. Dated July 12. (Ibid., DEF 19–6 USSR-SOMALI)
4. Dated July 3. (Ibid.)
5. In telegram 4784 from Addis Ababa, July 18, Hall reported that he discussed the status of the detente and the danger of a new arms race between Somalia and Ethiopia with Prime Minister Aklilou that afternoon, and urged the necessity of an early meeting to discuss detente and to reassure Somalia regarding Ethiopia’s purchase of Canberra jet bombers. The Ambassador warned Aklilou that Egal could not come to Addis Ababa without assurance that he would take back some concrete accomplishment. Hall reported that the Prime Minister said he would ask the Ethiopian Ambassador in Mogadiscio to reassure Egal concerning specific concessions to be made when he came to Addis Ababa and to renew the invitation for a visit. (Ibid.)